FXUS63 KDDC 211631

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

1131 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Record heat expected Saturday afternoon in the 90s.



- Strong north winds and much cooler Sunday.



- Coolest day Monday in the 60s, followed by another rapid

  warming trend through midweek. 



- Southwest Kansas will remain dry over the next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Mid to upper level ridging and downslope regime will continue to

impact our sensible weather across southwest Kansas today. High

temperatures are forecast to be near or exceeding record 

levels. The record high at each of our climate sites are: 

DDC-94, GCK-86, and P28-94. Some areas may be able to reach the

upper 90s, as some guidance continue to show areas along the

KS/OK border nearing triple digits. The hot temperatures, with

antecedent dry conditions, and slightly elevated winds will also

lead to a low-end critical fire weather risk this afternoon.

While the minimum relative humidity levels will be as low as

5-10%, the limiting factor at a higher fire risk will be the

winds across the area, with Red Flag criteria perhaps only 

being met at times. Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the 

entire forecast period to highlight this risk.



Into Sunday, ridging breaks down with a shortwave trough

expected to sweep across the northern Plains and into the

Midwest. With the passage, a dry cold front will traverse the

forecast area, bringing cooler temperatures and stronger winds.

The main story will be the winds. Current NBM shows northerly

winds 20-30 knots, with gusts 30-35 knots. However, stronger

winds will be possible given solutions from the ENS-control and

NAM. Expect forecast winds to continue to increase in 

subsequent forecast updates.



The ridge will amplify again next week, leading to warmer

temperatures across the forecast area. We will quickly see 

temperatures climb back into the 80s and 90s again Tuesday 

through Thursday. Still no rainfall in sight, with long range 

global models failing to show any appreciable moisture getting 

into southwest Kansas. NBM POPs are reflective of this with 

negligible chances (15% or less) through the entire forecast 

period.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1128 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.

Main weather feature of interest will be a strong cold front and

increasing post frontal winds through western Kansas Sunday

morning. The wind shift from SW to NW should occur between

09-12Z and post frontal winds will increase to 20-30 kts with

gusts around 40 kts at times especially between 15-18Z. 



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for 

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Bennett

AVIATION...Tatro