FXUS63 KDDC 202137 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 437 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm weather is expected Saturday with near record highs. - A dry cold front will bring strong north winds and cooler temperatures on Sunday. - A warming trend is forecast for early next week, with highs returning to the 80s. - Another dry cold front is expected to cool temperatures down to seasonal levels by Thursday or Friday. - No precipitation is forecast for the next week to ten days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Upper level ridging and downslope flow will lead to near record highs Saturday. The record high at Dodge City is 94 and there is a chance this could be tied or broken. A few locations could reach the upper 90s in Clark and Comanche counties at the lower elevations. An upper level trough moving across the US/Canadian border will push a cold front through Kansas Sunday morning. Temperatures ahead of the front should start out very mild in the 50s to lower 60s. The 90th percentile of the NBM still gives 45 mph northerly gusts with the cold advection during mid to late morning. As a result, temperatures are predicted to only rise into the mid 60s at Scott City and lower 70s at Medicine Lodge. Even with the cooler air mass, temperatures will likely not fall below freezing Monday morning, with mid to upper 30s more likely. These readings are close to climatology. Flat upper level ridging will amplify just enough across the southern high plains early next week to allow for surface troughing and warmer weather. Highs will be in the upper 60s Monday, which is still a little above seasonal averages and then warm to near 80 by Tuesday. Very warm weather is expected Wednesday as an upper level ridge amplifies even more across the southern Rockies and southern high plains, with highs reaching the upper 80s again. There is considerable uncertainty with the timing of the next cold front late next week as a jet streak progresses eastward along the US-Canadian border. A slower frontal passage would result in 90s for highs on Thursday; but a faster passage would mean temperatures falling back to seasonal averages. The ensemble means continue to indicate very low chances for measurable precipitation over the next week (10% or less). Expect dry weather to persist through the remainder of March. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 433 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 The hot and dry air mass in place across western Kansas will continue through this TAF period, which means prolonged widespread VFR flight category and generally light winds. A southwesterly wind will develop by late morning Saturday, increasing in speed to 14 to 17 knots sustained for about a 3 to 5 hour period later in the afternoon toward the end of this TAF period. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Saturday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...Umscheid