FXUS63 KDDC 200930

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

430 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Unseasonably hot, near record afternoon temperatures Friday

  and Saturday.



- Elevated to critical risk of wildfire spread Saturday

  afternoon. 



- Dry cold front will bring strong north winds and heat relief

  Sunday. 



- Another strong warming trend is expected next week. 



- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future,

  at least the next 10 days. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Stalled ridging centered across the Desert Southwest and

downslope regime will continue through Saturday. Forecast still

has record high temperatures being threatened or exceeding

across the forecast area, especially on Saturday. The record 

high for Dodge City is 94, and we currently have a forecast of

96. Of note, that forecast is within 2 degrees of the all time

March record high of 98. Some areas may approach 100 degrees

Saturday afternoon as NBM probabilities continue to highlight

around 30% chance of exceeding the century mark in some of our

western and southern zones. While this level of heat is

certainly extraordinary for the area this early in the year,

experimental Heat Risk map shows only a Category 1-Minor risk of

heat related impacts. Heat at this level will primarily affect

those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without

cooling/hydration. Saturday will feature a near critical to

marginally critical fire weather day as well with slightly

stronger winds and very low relative humidity. A Fire Weather 

Watch remains in effect and had been expanded with the latest 

forecast.



Into Sunday, a shortwave trough across the northern Plains will

bring a cold front across Kansas by Sunday morning. Mild

temperatures will still remain despite the cold front with

mostly 70s for the entire area, and perhaps still reaching low

80s along the Oklahoma border. Behind the front, strong

northerly winds are expected. NBM mean forecast currently shows

around 20 knots sustained, with gusts 25-30 knots. However, as

is typically the case with the low wind bias, those winds are 

likely too low and may have to be increased in subsequent 

forecasts. Much cooler air will filter in Sunday night into 

Monday morning, but most areas should stay above freezing.



The cooler temperatures will be short lived as the ridge builds

back in and temperatures begin to increase again, with 80s

returning by Tuesday and Wednesday. With this persistent

pattern, NBM POP chances still remain negligible (<10%) for the

entire forecast period.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... 

Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period,

with VFR/SKC and light winds. 



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday 

evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-075>081-084>090.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Bennett

AVIATION...Turner