FXUS63 KDDC 200425

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

1125 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Warm weather and unseasonably light winds are forecast through

  Saturday.



- A dry cold front will bring strong north winds and cooler

  temperatures on Sunday.



- A warming trend is forecast for early next week, with

  temperatures returning to much warmer than average.



- No precipitation is expected for the next week to ten days.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Upper level ridging and downslope trajectories will lead to

near record highs Friday and Saturday. The record high for

Saturday at Dodge City is 94. A few locations could reach the

upper 90s, especially in Clark and Comanche counties on the 

lower terrain as air has farther to downslope there. 



A shortwave trough traversing the northern tier will shove a 

cold front southward into Kansas by Sunday morning. Downslope 

winds and vertical mixing will keep temperatures mild in the 50s

to near 60 early Sunday morning ahead of the front, with highs 

in the mid 60s (north) to near 70 (south) reached before noon. 

But with cold advection setting in, temperatures will hold 

steady or fall a few degrees later in the morning and into the 

afternoon. Given the strong pressure gradient, expect strong 

north winds Sunday through mid-day. The 90th percentile of the 

NBM gives 45-50 mph gusts; and this is what we fully expect 

given the strong 850mb winds of 40-50 kts. Despite the cooler 

air arriving, temperatures will stay near to a little above 

freezing Monday morning, with 32 to 38 degree readings common. 



Upper level ridging will return by early to mid next week, with

temperatures once again warming into the 80s and 90s by

Wednesday ahead of the next front. Temperatures by Thursday and

Friday will likely drop back into the 60s and 70s for highs, and

possibly cooler, with lows in the 30s.



The various ensemble means indicate very low chances for 

measurable precipitation over the next week (10% or less). 

Pattern recognition suggests a dry forecast with not even a 

trace of precipitation.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



VFR conditions will prevail across the TAF period. Only thing of

note will be a wind shift from westerly to northerly with the 

passage of a front through Friday afternoon. Winds will be

generally 5-10 knots.





&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday 

evening for KSZ030-031-045-046-063>066-075>081-084>090.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Finch

AVIATION...Bennett