FXUS63 KDDC 192200

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

500 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



...Updated Aviation...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Isolated thunderstorms possible central Kansas Tuesday

  evening. 



- Wet period expected starting this weekend, Saturday through

  Monday. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



The scattered showers and storms that developed across the

northern forecast area this morning continued this afternoon 

but the overall trend in the activity was downward. Looking into

later this afternoon, observations show very weak convergence 

along the KS/OK border that could serve as a focus for storm 

initiation along and near this boundary. 19z mesoanalysis showed

increasing MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg and limited to no capping in 

southeast counties of Pratt and Barber. If there is a storm to 

develop, it would mainly be in these areas and along the 

Oklahoma border. With lacking 0-6 km bulk shear of <25 knots, 

organized convection and severe is not anticipated. However, 

with steep low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and DCAPE on the 

order of 1500 J/kg, environment could support gusty downburst 

winds. SPC carries a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe 

weather east of Route 283 today, but again, think the main focus

will be in far southeastern counties with the best chance at a 

isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorm. Chances of 

storms are low (around 20-25%). Any storms that do develop will

dissipate into the the later half of the evening.



Into the mid and later half of the week, expect the weather

across southwest Kansas to be relatively benign. High pressure

will continue to dominate the weather across southwest Kansas, 

suppressing storm chances. High temperatures will hover around 

the low to mid 90s with low temperatures in the low 60s to low 

70s through Friday.



Friday and beyond, a significant pattern shift is expected. 

Looking into the medium to long range of the forecast period, 

ridging breaks down across the Plains, allowing for cooler 

temperatures and higher chances at precipitation. A strong signal

exists within the ensembles (EPS, GEFS, and CMCE) of a more wet

pattern emerging into the late weekend and into next week,

indicating multiple rounds of storms are possible. Exact details

on the timing and evolution of convection is uncertain, but the

confidence is growing with this pattern change as it relates to

sensible weather impacts across southwest Kansas. The ensembles

indicate the potential for greater than 1" of rain across

southwest Kansas. For example, grand emsemble shows 50-70%

chance of 1" or greater through midweek next week.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... 

Issued at 500 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



Radar imagery at 22z depicted scattered thunderstorms over

central Kansas, east of a HYS-P28 line. These storms are

expected to remain east of the airports, but there is a minimal

probability of a shower or thunderstorm near HYS this evening.

Otherwise, excellent flying weather will continue through this

TAF period, with a continuation of VFR/SKC and light winds. 



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Bennett

AVIATION...Turner