FXUS63 KDDC 191632 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1132 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms again this afternoon/evening, and very slow-moving storms could lead to localized excessive rainfall and minor flooding (mainly south of the Arkansas River) - Dry weather forecast remainder of the workweek ahead of the next big pattern change. - Cooler and wetter weather forecast late weekend through mid next week. Abundant rainfall is possible with repeated nightly thunderstorm activity and one or two days of high temperatures upper 60s to mid 70s possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 356 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Much of western Kansas was in a fairly moist, deep tropospheric air mass with very weak steering winds and the lack of a cap. This is the type of atmosphere that typically yields "pop up" showers and thunderstorms just about anywhere at any time, making specific forecasting for individual locations very difficult. The remnants of last night's convective episode across west central Kansas (which hit portions of Lane, Trego, and Ellis Counties particularly hard with quite a bit of rain) continued to fester over these same locations through 0830Z (330 AM CDT). The pattern described in the first paragraph will not change much today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to redevelop just about anywhere once again, but the 00Z run of the HREF seems to show the strongest signal farther south, generally south of the Arkansas River. We will carry 20 POPs for the entire forecast area with higher 30+ POPs focused southeast of Dodge City where the greatest HREF and latest runs of the HRRR signal points to. Over the next several days, particularly Wednesday through Friday, the upper level high will expand its influence across the Rockies and western Great Plains, and this will increasingly suppress thunderstorm activity, so we will keep a dry forecast going through the end of the workweek. After that, we will begin to see the first indications of a wholesale pattern change toward wetter/cooler as a strong late summer Pacific jet core rounds the upper high and moves across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. This will effectively "squash" the summer subtropical high as a strong cold front (by late August standards) pushes south toward Kansas. All three of the major global models GFS, Canadian GDPS, and ECMWF show this pattern developing over the weekend and maturing late weekend through early/mid next week. There will be multiple chances and rounds of thunderstorm activity as we have pretty much all of the ingredients in place for organized thunderstorm activity with excessive rainfall potential. Of course, the daily details will not come in to focus until at least a couple days out, and each night's thunderstorm complex, wherever it develops that night, will have impacts on the next day's round of storms as well as daytime temperatures. Speaking of temperatures, there will likely be one or two days early/mid next week where highs will be on the cooler side of the ensemble envelope (i.e. 25th or perhaps even 10th percentile) given this cooler/wetter regime. For example, right now per NBM, 25th percentile high temperature for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week are 70-75F with 10th percentile each of those days in the mid to upper 60s. Granted, for each of those days, the 90th percentile NBM is lower to mid 90s for highs, so early to mid next week temperatures will be a significant forecast challenge. As far as precipitation goes, there is also a very large envelope of QPF with 72-hr QPF ending 7 AM CDT Wednesday 8/27 ranging from one- quarter inch (25th percentile) to 2"+ (75th percentile). Bottom line is, there is growing confidence of a major pattern change toward cooler, wetter, but specific forecast on the dailies for any specific location this far out is highly uncertain, so keep checking back regarding this weekend and next week's forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Isolated to scattered showers, with occasional lightning activity, is ongoing across parts of southwest Kansas late this morning and early afternoon. However, most of the heaviest storms has stayed away from the terminals. A gradual decrease in activity is expected through the rest of the early afternoon. Later this afternoon, storm activity is expected to be south and east of the terminals. VFR conditions will ultimately prevail through the forecast period. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Bennett