FXUS63 KDDC 190437 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1137 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chance of storms this evening - Storm chances again Tuesday - Temperatures gradually cooling into next weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 20z surface observations showed an upslope flow regime taking place across eastern Colorado and into northwestern Kansas today. Some thunderstorms have already developed off the higher terrain and northeastern Plains in Colorado. A boundary is also draped just north of the forecast area. Given the location of the best upslope and boundary placement, believe most of the storm activity will be more north and west of the area. However, cannot rule out an isolated storm into this evening and overnight across northern counties with the boundary in close proximity. With lacking upper-level support and flow, any storm that does try and develop will likely struggle to organize. Therefore, severe weather is not expected, but some sporadic gusty winds are not out of the question. Into Tuesday, weak front moves into Kansas and stalls out across the CWA. This front will serve as a focal for thunderstorm development along and ahead of it into the later afternoon and evening hours. Again, with overall limited flow and upper-level support, not anticipating widespread severe weather. A few gusty winds cannot be entirely ruled out. CAMs develop storms during the early parts of the afternoon and move storms north to south across the CWA. Once the front clears the area late Tuesday night, expecting clearing and temperatures to fall around normal for mid August standards (low 90s). Temperatures drop further late in the forecast period where much of the forecast area looks to struggle to get out of the 80s by Saturday and Sunday. As far as precipitation chances are concerned, low to medium chances (20-50%) this weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 A loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms will continue to dissipate through the beginning of this new TAF period. Winds will eventually settle down to 10 knots or less at all airports, especially after 08Z or 09Z and will remain light through the rest of this TAF period given the lack of a pressure gradient with the upper level high in vicinity of southwestern Kansas. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bennett AVIATION...Umscheid