FXUS63 KDDC 071638 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1138 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry, warming trend across southwest KS continues to begin the work week. - A cold front will pass through the area early Wednesday, briefly interrupting the warming trend. - Warming trend restarts Friday, with afternoon highs reaching the 80s to low 90s over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal a rather amplified synoptic pattern is in place atop the CONUS, with a longwave trough east of the Rockies, ridging over the Intermountain West, and a shortwave trough beginning to make landfall on the Pacific Northwest. Daytime Monday, guidance indicates this shortwave feature will propagate eastward, which will cause the ridge to its east to dampen. Despite weakening subsidence over the central plains ahead of the ridge, 850-mb temperatures are progged to increase by around 4-7 degrees C amidst modest downsloping winds, which will allow the warming trend to continue as afternoon highs reach the mid to upper 60s. Portions of the Red Hills may even breach 70. Overnight, a lee cyclone over eastern MT and adjacent areas will deepen enough for its influence to reach southwest KS, and southerly winds will increase in response and at least partially offset the radiative cooling effects of clear skies. Therefore, Tuesday morning lows will only drop to near or just above freezing. During the day Tuesday, short range ensembles agree the upper level ridge will be largely flattened out by the shortwave impulse advancing from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies. As a result, a secondary lee cyclone will develop over eastern NE, supporting southwesterly downsloping winds across southwest KS. This will foster another noticeable jump in afternoon temperatures, with highs rising into the upper 70s to low 80s. Early Wednesday, the aforementioned shortwave impulse over the northern Rockies will begin to take on a more southeasterly trajectory towards the upper Midwest, which will send a cold front equatorward through the central plains. While this cold frontal passage will be dry, breezy northerly winds in its wake will draw cooler air into southwest KS, with a reinforcing shot of cool air early Thursday. Consequently, the warming trend will be paused, with afternoon highs in the 70s both Wednesday and Thursday. Friday and beyond, medium range ensembles agree longwave ridging will build over the western CONUS once again, and gradually slide east with time. As the ridge axis passes overhead this weekend, a sharp increase in afternoon temperatures is expected along with strong southerly winds. Highs will likely be well into the 80s as NBM probability of MaxT > 85F is in the 60-90% range along and west of US-283 on Saturday, and 60-80% for all zones on Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1137 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through tonight with mostly clear skies. Winds will be from the northeast this afternoon, shifting to the southeast this evening. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Springer AVIATION...Hovorka_42