FXUS63 KDDC 041513

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

1013 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026



...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A cold front will sag southward across southwest Kansas

  Tuesday, bringing a wide variety of temperatures, much cooler

  northwest, much hotter southeast. Temperature forecasts will

  be a challenge through Thursday.



- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times,

  Tuesday night through Thursday night, as the frontal boundary

  meanders over SW KS and slowly dissolves. 



- Afternoon temperatures will be held near August normals

  through midweek, before the heat rebuilds quickly through the

  weekend. Expect afternoon temperatures of 100+ by this

  weekend. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 145 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026



Late tonight, a fairly disorganized area of showers and 

isolated thunderstorms were moving east along the I-70 

corridor, tied to a cold frontal zone. The disorganization is 

largely due to lack of appreciable moisture and instability 

(MUCAPE 500 J/kg or less). This will be a continuing theme along

this frontal zone as it continues to move slowly south across 

southwest Kansas on Tuesday then again Wednesday. For this 

reason, there is a very low probability of severe storms with 

this front, and even the chances of widespread rainfall amounts 

of 1/4" or higher are dwindling in the forecast. Low level 

moisture transport will favor central and south central Kansas, 

perhaps including our eastern counties, generally along/east of 

Highway 183 later Wednesday and Thursday Night. 



The cold front later on today will will provide a nice respite 

from the heat, if only for a couple of days. Afternoon 

temperatures today will likely track closer to the NBM 25th 

percentile given the fairly strong north-northeast winds and 

some increased cloud cover (highs of around 80 at Scott City to 

WaKeeney). Along and south of the slow- moving front, upper 90s 

to near 100 are likely once again, generally southeast of a 

Meade to Larned line -- especially down in the typically hot Red

Hills region.



The frontal zone will likely be along the Oklahoma line late 

Wednesday and lift slowly back north as a warm front Thursday, 

and as long as the front remains around our southwest Kansas 

region, the temperature forecasting will continue to be a 

challenge (mainly afternoon temperatures). NBM ranges 82 

WaKeeney to 101 Medicine Lodge Wednesday with upper 90s/near 100

advancing slowly north into far southwest Kansas Thursday as 

the frontal zone lifts back north. If the front bisects 

southwest Kansas from west-northwest to east- southeast, we will

likely see strong to marginally severe thunderstorms develop. 

Thursday late afternoon/evening will likely be the best chance 

for the most organized thunderstorm activity -- again mainly 

eastern areas where dewpoints will be higher closer to central 

and south central Kansas.



This weekend into much of next week, the summer subtropical

high will expand across the Rockies and central High Plains 

again, favoring another 3+ day heat wave beginning as early as 

Friday in the southwest. Latest official forecast has at least 

three-quarters of the DDC CWA 100+ highs beginning Sunday, 

continuing through Tuesday. Upper end high temperature potential

(90th percentile NBM) shows some 105-106F highs across portions

of mainly far southwest Kansas and also up toward Hays Sunday 

through Tuesday of next week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... 

Issued at 1013 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026



Radar at 15z Tue depicted scattered light showers/sprinkles,

with little to no impact on aviation operations. A cold front

currently bisecting SW KS will continue to sag southward through

this evening, with north winds eventually prevailing behind the

cold front at all airports, gusting 25-30 kts by 00z Wed.

Diminishing north winds will prevail for the remainder of this

TAF period. VFR will prevail through much of the period, with

varying amounts of mid/high cloud. Models suggest scattered rain

showers developing behind the cold front around 06z Wed, but

impact will be minimal. High confidence of IFR/MVFR stratus

expanding at GCK/DDC/HYS after 06z Wed, and persisting well into

Wednesday morning. Surface visibility will be restricted to MVFR

at times due to suspended smoke, and by BR Wednesday morning. 



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Umscheid

AVIATION...Turner

KEY MESSAGES...Turner