FXUS63 KDDC 032044 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 244 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sprinkles or very light rain showers possible tonight. A few isolated flurries can not be ruled out after midnight. - Increase fire weather risk Thursday through Saturday. - Unseasonably warm temperatures late week and next weekend. There is a 40-70% chance for highs to warm above 70 degrees Thursday through Saturday, mainly west and south of Dodge City. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Earlier this morning an upper level disturbance over Wyoming was embedded in a northwest across the Central United States. A 500mb high was centered over northern California, with an upper level ridge extending into Western Canada. The shortwave trough currently over Wyoming will move across western Kansas tonight. Given the increasing mid level moisture and lift under a -24C to -28C 500mb trough, a few sprinkles and light rain showers are possible overnight. Latest computer models suggest this precipitation will remain mostly liquid. However, a few flurries or a brief period of light snow cannot be entirely ruled out after midnight as colder air filters in from the north. What snow that does develop...little if any accumulation is expected. For Wednesday, subsidence will develop during the day behind an exiting upper wave, promoting clearing skies. This will also favor stronger afternoon winds than suggested by the NBM. Based on forecast 850mb winds and BUFR soundings momentum transfer it appears that the winds will be closer to the stronger 75th percentile Wednesday afternoon. While winds may be stronger than today, temperatures will be lower. We will continue to follow the latest NBM guidance for highs Wednesday based on the forecast 850mb temperatures which show a 2-3C drop over the next 24 hours as a cool dome of high pressure builds south across the Mid Mississippi Valley. Highs are forecast mainly in the 50 to 55 degree range. Temperatures will continue to warm through the rest of the week and into early next weekend as the upper ridge over the western United States moves east into the Plains. Downslope flow and 850mb temperatures forecast to be greater than the 90th percentile for this time of year should easily support the current forecast with high between 65 to 70 degrees late week and early next weekend across southwest Kansas. Latest NBM guidance already has a 40-70% chance for highs to be >70 degrees west and south of the Dodge City area. As temperatures warm late week and early next weekend the risk for fire weather will also improve from Thursday through Saturday. While not currently forecast to be high or critical, the combination of low humidity values (<20%) and gusty downslope winds may result in a few areas of elevated fire weather conditions, mainly west of Highway 83 on Saturday. We will monitor this closely over the next few days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Clouds will thicken and lower this afternoon and early tonight as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest. Ceilings will remain in the VFR category, though a brief period of MVFR ceilings (2000-3000ft AGL) is possible (30-50%) between 09Z and 12Z Wednesday. Along with these lower ceilings, there is a 30% or less chance for a few sprinkles, mainly in the Dodge City and Hays areas. After 12Z Wednesday, ceilings will improve as the upper wave passes and subsidence develops. Northerly winds will also increase early Wednesday morning, rising from 10 knots or less before 12Z Wednesday to 15 to 20 knots after 15Z Wednesday. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BurgertAVIATION...Burgert