FXUS63 KBIS 241403 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 903 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend continues through this weekend, with above normal temperatures for late October (Forecast highs in the 60s to around 70, with normal values in the lower 50s). - Precipitation chances return late in the weekend through early next week. The highest chances (40 to 60 percent) are currently forecast Sunday night through the day Monday central and east. - Temperatures will trend cooler (closer to normal) through next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 903 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Tranquil weather remains over the area this morning with only a few passing clouds and relatively light winds. Expect this to continue through the day. UPDATE Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 There are no changes to the forecast with this product issuance. See below for discussion. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Currently, broad/dirty mid/upper level ridge extends from the Central Rockies northeast through the Northern Plains into central Canada early this morning. An embedded mid level low/closed wave is cutting through the ridge, moving southeast across far southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba, evident via satellite imagery with a subtle circulation of mid level clouds depicted. A mostly clear sky across the local region this morning, with temperatures milder compared to 24 hours ago thanks to a steady mixing wind up to 10 mph at times. The eastward progression of the upper ridge resulted in sfc high pressure pushing farther to the east over the past 12-24 hours, with this pattern persisting today resulting in a weaker south/southwesterly return flow and a weaker pressure gradient. Overall pattern will also continue the trend of temperatures nudging warmer, along with minimal cloud cover and dry weather. Upper ridge becomes more defined and amplifies on Saturday, as a long wave trough develops across the western CONUS. Gradient forcing increases as lee side sfc low pressure develops in response to the upper trough's eastward development, with the increase in return flow and position of the upper ridge axis contributing to further WAA and the warmest period of this warm spell on Saturday, with widespread mid/upper 60s - lower 70s forecast for highs (normal high temps are in the lower 50s). The upper trough continues to develop eastward on Sunday, with a strong 150 knot jet streak poking into the Pacific Northwest. Initial closed upper low develops within the trough, lifting north/northeast into central Alberta/Saskatchewan Sun night/Mon. While the bulk of precipitation with this feature looks to remain west and northwest of North Dakota, embedded impulses in strong south/southwest flow may bring a few initial light showers Sun aft/eve to our area. Another strong embedded impulse develops on the nose of the upper jet and will swing northeast across the Dakotas Monday through early Tuesday. Associated sfc low/trough will be the focus for another round of precip chances, though ensembles and NBM are trending a bit more east, favoring mainly the eastern Dakotas for light rain with minimal if any moisture expected west. Afterwards, a fairly progressive pattern is favored amongst ensembles for the remainder of next week, with models showing the potential for mid level shortwave and frontal passages mid to late next week. Temperatures are also favored to be closer to normal for next week, though NBM spreads start to increase after Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the 12Z TAF period. Winds will remain south/southwesterly through the period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JJS DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...NH