FXUS63 KBIS 240304

AFDBIS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

1004 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A warming trend continues through this weekend, with above

  average temperatures for late October.



- Precipitation chances return late in the weekend through early

  next week. The highest chances (40 to 60 percent) are

  currently forecast Sunday night through the day Monday.

  Temperatures will also trend cooler (closer to average) for 

  next week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1004 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025



What little cloud cover was present over the area is shifting

off to the east, leaving clear skies across the forecast area

late this evening. Should be a quiet night for western and

central North Dakota, with overnight lows in the upper 20s to

lower 30s. Going forecast looks good for the night. 



UPDATE

Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025



Surface high pressure in eastern Montana is slowly edging into

western North Dakota, which will help diminish winds through the

evening and tonight. A few high clouds are drifting across the

central part of the state, but a quiet evening continues.

Updated gridded forecast for the night but no real changes with

this update.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025





Currently a small progressive ridge is moving through the state.

Another quick shortwave is moving east through Montana with a 

surface warm front under it. In the Pacific Northwest heights 

are falling as a slight trough moves in. There are no clouds in 

the Northern Plains currently as high pressure dominates the 

skies. Only a few cirrus clouds are present with the warm front

and trough. With that warm front moving through tonight, 

temperatures will not drop into the 20s with the clear skies. 

Forecast lows are right around freezing or slightly above. 



This weekend will be continued warmth with highs in the 60s and

maybe even the 70s out west. Saturday will be the warmest day as

another quick ridge moves through. It will also be very breezy,

south winds will gust around 30 mph, especially central and

east. Sunday will be windier with southerly winds gusting near

35 mph in those same locations. Sunday an upper low digs into 

the Pacific Northwest, creating an Atmospheric River event out 

there. So flow over the Northern Plains will start to switch to 

the southwest. As a result a Rockies low pressure will likely 

form and move into either the Northern Plains or Midwest 

regions, bringing that ocean moisture over here. Forecast QPF 

through Tuesday has the rain from Highway 85 east. With the 

higher amounts starting on the east end of the James River 

Valley. Currently the forecast amounts are all less then one 

inch. Temperatures to start next week will be back to at or 

below average, since we will likely be on the cold side of the 

system. The NBM temperature spreads are nine to eleven degrees 

as the uncertainty of location and strength of the system adds 

up. After Tuesday a zonal pattern looks to set in, keeping 

temperatures around average.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025



VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the TAF period.

Southeast winds will diminish this evening, becoming light and

shifting to be more southwesterly through the day Friday.



&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Jones

DISCUSSION...Smith

AVIATION...Jones