FXUS63 KBIS 211806

AFDBIS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

106 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Well above average temperatures over most locations except far

  north central North Dakota today before a cold front settles 

  through the area.

 

- Low to medium chances for rain this afternoon through this 

  evening, possibly a little light snow north.



- Notably cooler temperatures Sunday, then a warming trend into

  mid-week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Cold front moving across North Dakota from north to south early

this afternoon. With it low clouds and mist/drizzle being

reported from NDDOT webcams. Expect this trend to continue

through the afternoon, with some rain showers developing long

and behind the front. Cooler areas in the north could see some

brief snow as well. Overall forecast remains on track, made

minor adjustments to PoPs based on recent guidance and radar

trends. 



UPDATE

Issued at 929 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Limited updates needed this morning. Some patchy fog remains

across the north, and could linger through the morning hours. A

cold front is still expected to push through this afternoon,

bringing mainly rain showers north to south, with some snow

mixed in across the cooler portions. Until this front moves

through, above normal temperatures will continue. There still

could be some near critical fire weather conditions in the

southwest, although the window for this is brief today.

Regardless will keep the fire weather messaging from the

previous shift.  



UPDATE

Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Some fog lingers over far north central North Dakota where

cooler temperatures and low level moisture remain. Going

forecast remains on track.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 301 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Current surface analysis places low over far north central 

North Dakota with cold front stretching to the west-northwest, 

while high remains over the central Rockies. Upper level 

analysis places persistant high over the desert southwest, with

ridge over the western into the central CONUS. Short wave noted

in the flow now pushing into the western edge of the northern

Rockies. Over our area, some patches of fog remain over parts of

north central North Dakota where ample low level moisture is

present. Otherwise, remaining locations have been quite mild 

with temperatures remaining in the 40s to mid 50s.



For today, aforementioned cold front will gradually drop through

the area. With that said, the timing of this frontal passage

will be relative slow, therefore many areas ahead of the front

will have time to climb to well above average temperatures, 

with some 70s expected over far southern portions of the state. 

As the front settles through and aforementioned short wave 

continues its approach, low to medium chances for some light 

rain (possibly a little light snow far north) will pass through 

the area from north to south later today into this evening, 

though if any precipitation were to occur it should be quite 

light.



Sunday will see notably cooler temperatures behind the front,

along with low chances over western parts of the state for a 

little light snow, maybe a bit of light rain in the afternoon. 



Temperatures start to rebound on Monday before cooling a tad on

Tuesday, particularly over northern and eastern areas, as a weak

wave passes by. Notable warming on Wednesday with low to medium

precipitation chances before cooler temperatures return.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



A cold front moving from north to south will bring lower clouds

and a chance rain or perhaps brief snow showers today through

this evening. Ceilings could be MVFR to IFR during passage of

this front today through this evening. Most sites have a chance

of rain during passage of this front today, however, confidence

was only high enough to use PROB30 groups. Tonight, chances for

rain and snow will diminish this evening with MVFR to some IFR

ceilings remaining through the night. MVFR ceilings could then

remain into Sunday morning. Breezy northerly wind expected

through tonight, becoming light and variable Sunday morning.  



&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Anglin

DISCUSSION...JJS

AVIATION...Anglin