FXUS63 KBIS 211001

AFDBIS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

501 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Well above average temperatures over most locations except far

  north central North Dakota today before a cold front settles 

  through the area.

 

- Low to medium chances for rain later this afternoon through

  this evening, possibly a little light snow north.



- Notably cooler temperatures Sunday, then a warming trend into

  mid-week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 301 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Current surface analysis places low over far north central 

North Dakota with cold front stretching to the west-northwest, 

while high remains over the central Rockies. Upper level 

analysis places persistant high over the desert southwest, with

ridge over the western into the central CONUS. Short wave noted

in the flow now pushing into the western edge of the northern

Rockies. Over our area, some patches of fog remain over parts of

north central North Dakota where ample low level moisture is

present. Otherwise, remaining locations have been quite mild 

with temperatures remaining in the 40s to mid 50s.



For today, aforementioned cold front will gradually drop through

the area. With that said, the timing of this frontal passage

will be relative slow, therefore many areas ahead of the front

will have time to climb to well above average temperatures, 

with some 70s expected over far southern portions of the state. 

As the front settles through and aforementioned short wave 

continues its approach, low to medium chances for some light 

rain (possibly a little light snow far north) will pass through 

the area from north to south later today into this evening, 

though if any precipitation were to occur it should be quite 

light.



Sunday will see notably cooler temperatures behind the front,

along with low chances over western parts of the state for a 

little light snow, maybe a bit of light rain in the afternoon. 



Temperatures start to rebound on Monday before cooling a tad on

Tuesday, particularly over northern and eastern areas, as a weak

wave passes by. Notable warming on Wednesday with low to medium

precipitation chances before cooler temperatures return. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026





Mainly VFR conditions for the 06Z period. Some low stratus and 

fog may develop over portions of far north central North Dakota

tonight, mainly where snowpack lingers. Periods of low level 

wind shear expected at all terminals overnight into parts of 

Saturday morning. Winds will become northwest-northerly for 

Saturday as a cold front moves into the region. MVFR with areas

of IFR ceilings develop north and east this morning, slowly 

spreading south and west this afternoon and evening.



&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JJS

AVIATION...JJS