FXUS63 KBIS 210906

AFDBIS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

406 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light rain ending this morning. 



- Gradual warming trend through the upcoming workweek, with 

  highs mostly in the 60s on Monday increasing to the 70s and 

  lower 80s by the end of the week.



- Chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through

  Wednesday night, otherwise mostly dry through the workweek.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



The upper level low that has been hanging around all weekend

will exit the area today with weak high pressure at the surface

and aloft over the area today.



Currently, scattered light showers were situated over the far

south central portion of the state. Although the showers were

propagating westward around the mid-upper level circulation, the

entire system continues to track off to the east. In the north,

a shortwave impulse was producing shower activity along the

Highway 2 corridor in northwest/north central ND. There have

been a few areas of higher reflectivity (showers) and Minot has

seen some measurable precipitation so will mention some isolated

to scattered showers prior to 12Z, with isolated sprinkles this

morning.



Skies were mostly cloudy and so far there has been little if 

any development of fog. Still have a mention of some patchy fog 

in the far north and far south through mid morning and hoping

this will hold. There does look to be some fog over southern 

Canada and if skies clear in the far north, could still see some

patchy dense fog develop. Will monitor.



For today. Look for mostly cloudy to cloudy skies this morning

with clouds decreasing during the day. It will be cool again,

with highs mainly in the 60s. Clear to partly cloudy tonight

with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. 



Dry on Tuesday with temperatures once again mainly in the 60s.

We will see increasing southerly surface winds Tuesday and

Wednesday, strongest in the west Tuesday, then central ND

Wednesday. This is due to increasing gradient winds between

blocking high pressure to our east and developing low pressure

in the lee of the Rockies. 



Tuesday night through Wednesday night a shortwave trough tracks

southwest to northeast across the forecast area bringing medium

to high chances for showers to most of western and central ND.

Currently the NBM probability of at least a quarter inch of rain

from 12Z Wednesday to 12Z Thursday is highest (60 to 70%) over 

south central ND, and tapers to 30-40% over southwest ND. The

lowest probabilities (less than 20%) are currently over

northwest ND, an then increase to 40 to 60% in north central ND. 

We will see if this placement changes as we get closer to 

Wednesday, but at this time it looks like a pretty broad area of

showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to track across the 

forecast area.



Upper level ridging then builds over the forecast area late in

the work week and this is when we expect to see a noticeable

warm-up as temperatures climb into the lower 80s over portions 

of the west, with 70s over central ND. Dry conditions are in 

store for Thursday and at least the first half of Friday. An 

approaching upper level northern stream trough and southern 

stream shortwave trough could bring low to medium precipitation 

chances later Friday and into the first half of the weekend. It 

does appear that temperatures will cool a little over the 

weekend, but will remain seasonable, in the 60s to lower 70s.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



VFR conditions to begin the 06Z TAF period at all TAF sites.

Current guidance suggests that all TAF sites should remain VFR

through the period. An area of patchy fog can not be completely

ruled our early Monday morning at any site. but too uncertain to

add a mention at this time. We did add some patchy fog to the

gridded forecast in the far north and the far south, so there

probably will be some areas of fog around. KDIK would have the

highest potential for MVFR to possible IFR ceiling late tonight

or Monday morning but again, too uncertain to add a MVFR 

ceiling at this time. Light easterly surface flow overnight 

becomes southeast 5 to 15kts on Monday across the area.



&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...TWH

AVIATION...TWH