FXUS63 KBIS 201731

AFDBIS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

1231 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Well above average temperatures continue today and Saturday

  over most locations. Some records may again be tied or set.



- Low to medium precipitation chances Saturday/Saturday night 

  as cold front passes through.



- Cooler temperatures to start the upcoming week behind the cold

  front, then warming trend into mid-week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Generally clear and quiet weather can be found across western

and central North Dakota at this time. Winds are starting to

become breezy across the west, mainly as strong low to mid level

lapse rates (8.5 to 9 C/KM) have move in. With this update, 

have upped the winds slightly, now westerly with sustained 

speeds around 15 to 20 MPH and isolated gusts up to 25 MPH. Have

also added patchy fog tonight across portions of north central 

North Dakota, mainly where snowpack lingers. Otherwise, the 

forecast remains on track at this time.



UPDATE

Issued at 900 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Patchy fog can be found over portions of northwest and north

central North Dakota at the time of this mid morning update.

While fog has begun to erode with the sunrise, it may linger a 

while longer in shallow areas over the next few hours, before 

lifting as winds begin to pick up. With this update, have 

extended mentions of fog through the mid to late morning. 

Otherwise, generally clear and calm conditions are found across 

the forecast area. The forecast remains on track. 



UPDATE

Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Going forecast is in good shape with a few patches of fog around

the area as indicated in latest observations.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Current surface analysis places low over Lake Superior and high

over the Rockies. Upper level analysis places high over the

desert southwest, with broad ridge over the western into the

central CONUS. Over our area, temperatures have remained quite

mild overnight with lows mainly in the 30s, and a few patches of

fog showing up over various locations. 



Upper ridge over the region will continue to bring very warm to

record temperatures to the area today, with highs running 

around 20 to 30 degrees above average. Again, the exception will

be parts of far north central North Dakota where snow cover 

will keep temperatures a bit cooler.



Saturday will be the day of transition as a Pacific trough 

pushes through the top of the ridge and a cold front starts to 

push into the region. Southern parts of the area are expected to

be quite warm given the timing of the front, with highs still 

pushing into the 70s over many locations. Further north, 

particularly over north central North Dakota, some question 

still exists on temperatures given the frontal timing, as Rugby 

continues to show a 13 degree difference between the NBM 25th 

and 75th percentiles (39 vs. 52). Low precipitation chances 

start to push into northern areas in the afternoon, with low to 

medium chances spreading through the area overnight, starting as

rain transitioning towards snow chances as the cooler air 

pushes in. 



Notably cooler temperatures for Sunday with temperatures

starting to rebound on Monday. Low precipitation chances return

for mid-week, while notably warmer temperatures are possible 

for Wednesday. With that said, a 15 to 20 degree spread still 

remains in the NBM 25th to 75th percentile for high temperatures

throughout our area. Cooler temperatures then expected to close

out the work week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Mainly VFR ceilings and visibility is expected at all terminals

throughout the 18Z TAF period. Late this evening and tonight,

low stratus and fog may develop over portions of far north

central North Dakota, mainly where snowpack lingers. Confidence

is too low to include mentions of either at KMOT at this time.

Otherwise, gusty west to northwest winds will persist through

the afternoon, somewhat diminishing overnight before turning

northerly and strengthening Saturday morning. Periods of wind

shear are expected at all terminals, except KDIK, late this

evening through Saturday morning. 



&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Adam/JJS

DISCUSSION...JJS

AVIATION...Adam