FXUS63 KBIS 192143

AFDBIS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

Issued by National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

443 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Well above average temperatures through the rest of the week

  over most locations. Possible record setting, especially over

  western and southern locations. 



- Dry through remainder of work week, with precipitation chances

  returning Saturday/Saturday night.



- Cooler temperatures to start the upcoming week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 442 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Near critical fire weather conditions are expected across 

southwestern North Dakota through the late afternoon.

For tonight, the ongoing melting of snowpack lingering across the 

north central into eastern North Dakota and lighter winds could 

allow for another round of patchy fog to develop tonight into 

Thursday morning.



Similar conditions are expected to persist Friday and Saturday as 

broad ridging persists across the Northern Plains, with highs into 

the 60s and 70s and gusty west to northwest winds in the afternoon. 

The winds are expected to become more widespread on Saturday, as a 

cold front is progged to dip south across the region some time 

during the day. Ensemble members remain a little split on the timing 

of the front, though notably less so than the previous forecast 

cycles. A slower moving front is currently favored by a majority of 

ensemble members (60% of them), which will allow for highs across 

the north to remain broadly in the 50s and 60s through Saturday 

afternoon. The slower solution would also delay the onset of lighter 

precipitation (20 to 40 percent chance) on Saturday to the afternoon 

and evening, which would favor a rain-snow mix across the north. 

This scenario is reflected in the NBM. A minority cluster also 

exists (approximately 40 percent of the ensemble members), which 

still champions a faster moving front, corresponding to a scenario 

that would promote cooler highs in the 30s and 40s across the north. 

The cooler temperatures in that scenario, and the early onset of 

precipitation, would allow more snowfall across the north in that 

case. Overall the precipitation amounts should be light, with only a 

light dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow (highest in the 

Turtle Mountains) anticipated at this time.



Cooler, more seasonable temperatures are expected on Sunday on the 

back side of the cold front, with highs from the lower 30s north 

central to the upper 40s in the southwest. A return to southwesterly 

flow aloft late Sunday through early next week will return the 

forecast to a dry and warming pattern. The degree of warming is 

still a little uncertain as the ensembles struggle to resolve the 

breakdown of the ridge ahead of a decent wave moving in later in the 

week. With this wave, chances for precipitation and gusty winds are 

anticipated, though the location and degree of either remain 

uncertain this far ahead of time.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



VFR ceilings and visibility is mainly expected throughout the

18Z TAF period. Patchy fog and MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected

to develop tonight through Thursday morning in the north central

and eastern North Dakota where melting snowpack can be found.

Have added MVFR ceilings to KJMS, though confidence is too low

to include visibility reductions due to fog at this time. Gusty

west winds are expected through this afternoon, with sustained

speeds up to 25 knots and gusts up to 35 knots. Winds should

diminish through the evening, becoming light and variable

overnight.



&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...CJS

AVIATION...Adam