FXUS63 KBIS 050547

AFDBIS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

1247 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGE...



- Below average temperatures through Wednesday followed by a warming 

  trend to finish out the week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



With the ongoing cyclonic flow, we added 20 percent PoPs for

Tuesday afternoon in north central and central parts of the

state.



UPDATE

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



For late evening update, main change was to increase cloud

cover. Clouds have been a bit reluctant to dissipate thanks to

persistant cyclonic flow over the area. With that said, there

have been no reports of precipitation as of late, therefore will

keep forecast dry. 



UPDATE

Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Gusty north to northwest winds will continue for another hour or

so but will then diminish with the loss of daytime heating.

Going forecast reflects this well, and no changes are needed at

this time.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Gusty northwesterly winds will continue through this afternoon

before rapidly diminishing as the sun sets this evening. For 

the most part, most locations are seeing winds of 20 to 25 mph

with gusts up to 35 mph. However, there are periods where some 

locations are seeing sustained winds of around 30 mph with 

gusts to 45 mph. Combined with minimum relative humidity values

mostly ranging from 30 to 40 percent, near critical fire weather

conditions will persist this afternoon, especially south of 

I94.



In regard to precipitation chances, a few isolated showers

remain possible this afternoon and evening. These would mostly

be in the form of rain, though some snow could mix in as well. 

However, surface low pressure currently over Ontario will 

continue lifting off to the northeast through tonight, which 

will result in direct influence from the low waning. With dry 

air remaining in place and a loss of good cyclonic forcing, the 

probability of seeing anything measurable overnight remains 

low.



For Tuesday through Wednesday, surface high pressure will gradually 

filter into the Dakotas. This will help maintain below average 

temperatures and mostly dry conditions, including lows into the 

20s for most locations through Wednesday night. Northerly to 

northwesterly winds should remain breezy Tuesday as the high 

approaches before becoming light and occasionally variable 

Tuesday night. After which, winds should remain relatively 

light through the remainder of the workweek.



A west CONUS ridge is progged to build and gradually slide eastward 

to finish out the week. This favors a warming trend towards 

seasonable temperatures for the latter half of the week and lows

mostly returning to above freezing. Mostly dry conditions are 

expected to continue as well, though embedded shortwaves could 

bring the return of low precipitation chances this weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



VFR CIGs and VIS through the forecast period for all of western

and central ND. Winds will increase again this afternoon to 15

to 25 kts from the northwest, and calming after sunset. There 

is another slight chance of rain and snow showers in the north 

central and central parts of the state.



&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Smith

DISCUSSION...Telken

AVIATION...Smith