FXUS63 KBIS 042348

AFDBIS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

648 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Windy with isolated showers possible this evening.



- Below average temperatures through Wednesday followed by a warming 

  trend to finish out the week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Gusty north to northwest winds will continue for another hour or

so but will then diminish with the loss of daytime heating.

Going forecast reflects this well, and no changes are needed at

this time.





&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Gusty northwesterly winds will continue through this afternoon

before rapidly diminishing as the sun sets this evening. For 

the most part, most locations are seeing winds of 20 to 25 mph

with gusts up to 35 mph. However, there are periods where some 

locations are seeing sustained winds of around 30 mph with 

gusts to 45 mph. Combined with minimum relative humidity values

mostly ranging from 30 to 40 percent, near critical fire weather

conditions will persist this afternoon, especially south of 

I94.



In regard to precipitation chances, a few isolated showers

remain possible this afternoon and evening. These would mostly

be in the form of rain, though some snow could mix in as well. 

However, surface low pressure currently over Ontario will 

continue lifting off to the northeast through tonight, which 

will result in direct influence from the low waning. With dry 

air remaining in place and a loss of good cyclonic forcing, the 

probability of seeing anything measurable overnight remains 

low.



For Tuesday through Wednesday, surface high pressure will gradually 

filter into the Dakotas. This will help maintain below average 

temperatures and mostly dry conditions, including lows into the 

20s for most locations through Wednesday night. Northerly to 

northwesterly winds should remain breezy Tuesday as the high 

approaches before becoming light and occasionally variable 

Tuesday night. After which, winds should remain relatively 

light through the remainder of the workweek.



A west CONUS ridge is progged to build and gradually slide eastward 

to finish out the week. This favors a warming trend towards 

seasonable temperatures for the latter half of the week and lows

mostly returning to above freezing. Mostly dry conditions are 

expected to continue as well, though embedded shortwaves could 

bring the return of low precipitation chances this weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Gusty

northerly to northwesterly winds will diminish this evening, but

winds will become gusty again by late morning Tuesday.



&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...JJS

DISCUSSION...Telken

AVIATION...JJS