FXUS63 KBIS 040740

AFDBIS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

240 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Near critical fire weather conditions possible today.



- Isolated showers this afternoon.



- Cooler today and Tuesday, followed by a gradual warm-up

  through the rest of the week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Northwest flow continues across the Northern Plains and Upper

Mississippi River Valley from a low pressure system in southern

Canada. There are two cold fronts extending off this low 

pressure, one that has already move through the state, and 

another currently in central North Dakota. The first front 

gusted winds to 50 MPH for a short period, the second has light 

rain along the front. Slight chances for rain was added to the 

current NBM forecast. The second front is also creating gusty 

winds, but only to around 30 MPH. 



Today will be cooler, but still breezy. Expect highs in the 

post frontal air to be in the mid 40s north to mid 50s far 

south. Winds will be from the northwest, gusting near 30 MPH. 

Winds will be very close to Advisory criteria, especially in the

southwest. Some models have strong winds gusting near 50 MPH, 

and others don't. Confidence is lower, especially with the cold 

front passage happening now, along with the high pressure 

bubble. We will wait and see if the winds do end up stronger 

than forecast. There is still some fire weather danger today 

with the winds and afternoon humidities dropping to 30 percent. 

So we will maintain the near-critical wording, pay attention to 

your local burn restrictions. Under the cyclonic flow from the 

low pressure system, scattered isolated showers are possible 

this afternoon. With this, we covered our area in a broad slight

chance (20%) through the afternoon. 



The rest of this week we will remain in the northwest flow as a

ridge builds in the western CONUS. This ridge will slowly force

the northwest flow and cooler air to shift east. This in turn 

will warm our surface temperatures. By this weekend we will be 

back above normal temperatures with highs possibly in the mid 

and upper 60s.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026



VFR CIGs and breezy through the forecast period. There is a

slight chance of rain showers tonight. Winds will be 

northwesterly gusting near 30kts, calming in the late evening.



&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Smith

AVIATION...Smith