FXUS63 KARX 250253

AFDARX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

953 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers (30-60% chance) move through between midnight and 

  noon on Saturday. Overall, minimal impacts expected.



- Seasonal temperatures well into next week.



- A few low-probability shots of rainfall dot the forecast for

  next week, but trends are favoring drier weather.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Tonight - Saturday: Showers Move Through



As surface high pressure slides off to the southeast this 

afternoon and evening, a stout upper tropospheric vort lobe--

quite prominent on water vapor imagery over the Red River 

Valley--follows in its wake for tonight. Moisture return ahead 

of this wave is modest at best with the subtropical jet 

displaced to the south. That being said, RAP/HRRR forecast 

soundings show enough ingredients coming together in the 

800-700-mb layer--100-mb-deep saturation coupled with both 

synoptic ascent and mesoscale frontogenesis below steepening 

mid-level lapse rates--to generate a cluster of showers during 

the overnight and morning hours tomorrow. The transient nature 

of the forcing and shallowness of the moisture will limit 

overall rainfall amounts and the showers should cease by midday 

with the departing upper level trough. Rising heights for the 

remainder of the weekend should keep dry conditions in place 

into Monday.



Temperatures Outlook through Next Week:



With warmer air relegated to the southern CONUS, temperatures 

hover around seasonal norms through next week with slightly 

warmer temperatures on Sunday (highs in the upper 50s to around 

60), before the upstream thermal ridge begins to weaken and 

temperatures fall back into the low to mid-50s for highs by 

midweek.



Rainfall Potential for Next Week:



The region resides under a quasi split flow/ridging pattern 

through at least midweek with the medium to longer range 

solutions quickly diverging after midweek with how this pattern 

evolves. From an overarching view, such a pattern limits the 

potential for any meaningful precipitation. The token 20-30 

percent PoPs that grace the NBM forecast for Monday and Tuesday 

are the result the ensembles still trying to latch onto how far 

east a corridor of rain advances out of the mid-Missouri River 

valley. The trends over the last 4 runs of the LREF have been 

for this rain band to set up farther and farther west, and would

not be surprised to see much of the area stays dry in the end. 

Can't fully rule out more showers later in the week depending on

how the pattern shakes out, but there is too much dispersion in

the models at this range to make out much for details.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 949 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



While light rain is expected to sweep east across the area

tonight into Saturday morning, only brief reductions to MVFR are

expected due to drier air below the cloud layer. Have therefore

carried definite rain with PROB30 groups for MVFR at RST/LSE.

Mid level clouds at or around 10 kft are overspreading the area

and are near the Mississippi as of issuance time. These should

arrest temperature falls and thus prevent a recurrence of last

night's valley fog.



&&



.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...None.

MN...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Skow

AVIATION...Ferguson