FXUS63 KARX 241702

AFDARX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

1202 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Seasonable weather is expected today with light winds and

  mostly clear skies. 



- Increasing confidence in showers Saturday morning (20-40%).



- Low confidence in the forecast for early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Today



A chilly start this morning as below freezing temperatures have

been observed areawide. Weak warm air advection associated with

a 925-850hPa ridge axis and surface high pressure moving 

through the region will begin to take hold by the late morning, 

resulting in high temperatures climbing into the mid 50s for 

much of the area under mostly clear skies. 



Increasing confidence in showers Saturday morning



A closed 500hPa low situated over southern Saskatchewan this 

morning, evident on water vapor imagery, will continue 

southeastward today, moving quickly through the Upper 

Mississippi River Valley on Saturday. Strong 700-500hPa QG 

forcing associated with the wave should spark some morning 

showers over portions of the region, although uncertainties 

surrounding location and saturation remain.



The 23.12z LREF members are in good agreement regarding the 

presence of this wave, but differ when it comes to location. 

The EPS solution trends the low over southeast Minnesota and 

northeast Iowa, further southwest than the GEFS which trends 

northeast over Wisconsin. The EPS scenario suggests shower 

potential would be limited primarily to areas along and west of 

the Mississippi River whereas the GEFS suggests showers would be

areawide. 



The location differences also affects overall saturation given 

the dry airmass currently in place. While RAP/HRRR model 

soundings depict saturated mid-levels, they suggest the low 

levels through much of the region may struggle to saturate, 

limiting precipitation at the surface. Higher low level moisture

content is depicted over southeast Minnesota, so confidence in 

precipitation is highest for these areas. 



Trended PoPs slightly higher to account for the favorable 

forcing and ensemble guidance probabilities, generally 20-40%, 

highest over southeast Minnesota. Overall impacts should be 

minimal as amounts of 0.1" or less are expected, although there 

is some signal for amounts around 0.5" in 24.00z HREF LPMM.



Low Confidence Early Next Week



Quite a bit of uncertainty exists in the evolution of the upper

level pattern next week as messy split flow at 500hPa is 

depicted within the ensemble guidance. 24.01z NBM probabilities 

highlight Monday night into Tuesday as the most favorable day 

for a shot at widespread precipitation (30-50%) when the 

strongest synoptic forcing looks to be over the region, but 

overall confidence in the forecast is low.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



As a ridge of high pressure shifts east of the area this

afternoon, light southeasterly winds will take over around 5 to

10 kts. Expect these winds to persist through the TAF period as

a mid-level deck of clouds shifts through between 6-8000ft 

overnight. Rain showers are expected to develop within these 

clouds and have included a prob30 for the most likely window of 

precipitation at this time. As morning fog continues to lift, 

expect VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period, with a

30 to 40% chance of high-end MVFR, primarily north of I94 on 

Saturday morning and afternoon.



&&



.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...None.

MN...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Falkinham

AVIATION...JAW