FXUS63 KARX 241054 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 554 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable weather is expected today with light winds and mostly clear skies. - Increasing confidence in showers Saturday morning (20-40%). - Low confidence in the forecast for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Today A chilly start this morning as below freezing temperatures have been observed areawide. Weak warm air advection associated with a 925-850hPa ridge axis and surface high pressure moving through the region will begin to take hold by the late morning, resulting in high temperatures climbing into the mid 50s for much of the area under mostly clear skies. Increasing confidence in showers Saturday morning A closed 500hPa low situated over southern Saskatchewan this morning, evident on water vapor imagery, will continue southeastward today, moving quickly through the Upper Mississippi River Valley on Saturday. Strong 700-500hPa QG forcing associated with the wave should spark some morning showers over portions of the region, although uncertainties surrounding location and saturation remain. The 23.12z LREF members are in good agreement regarding the presence of this wave, but differ when it comes to location. The EPS solution trends the low over southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa, further southwest than the GEFS which trends northeast over Wisconsin. The EPS scenario suggests shower potential would be limited primarily to areas along and west of the Mississippi River whereas the GEFS suggests showers would be areawide. The location differences also affects overall saturation given the dry airmass currently in place. While RAP/HRRR model soundings depict saturated mid-levels, they suggest the low levels through much of the region may struggle to saturate, limiting precipitation at the surface. Higher low level moisture content is depicted over southeast Minnesota, so confidence in precipitation is highest for these areas. Trended PoPs slightly higher to account for the favorable forcing and ensemble guidance probabilities, generally 20-40%, highest over southeast Minnesota. Overall impacts should be minimal as amounts of 0.1" or less are expected, although there is some signal for amounts around 0.5" in 24.00z HREF LPMM. Low Confidence Early Next Week Quite a bit of uncertainty exists in the evolution of the upper level pattern next week as messy split flow at 500hPa is depicted within the ensemble guidance. 24.01z NBM probabilities highlight Monday night into Tuesday as the most favorable day for a shot at widespread precipitation (30-50%) when the strongest synoptic forcing looks to be over the region, but overall confidence in the forecast is low. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 553 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Clear skies and calm winds overnight has allowed patchy mist/fog to develop over portions of the region and valley fog/low stratus to develop within the Mississippi and Wisconsin River valleys bringing IFR to LIFR conditions. These flight restrictions are expected to linger through 14-15z. After the morning fog/low stratus dissipates, VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the TAF period with south to southeast winds generally around 5kts. However, SHRA potential increases towards the end of the TAF period (20-40%), primarily over southeast Minnesota. Have added a PROB30 group to KRST to highlight the shower potential. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ032-033- 041>044-053>055-061. MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...Freeze Warning until 9 AMCDT this morning for IAZ008>011-018- 019-029-030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Falkinham AVIATION...Falkinham