FXUS63 KARX 240602 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 102 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - The growing season ends tonight with widespread subfreezing temperatures expected. - Small chances of rain added to Saturday and Saturday night. - Still plenty of uncertainty on whether rain will occur somewhere between Sunday night and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Freeze expected tonight 17z WV satellite shows an expansive upper trough over Ontario/Quebec with northwesterly flow aloft over the CWA. In the wake of this feature, at the surface, a ridge has developed along the I-29 corridor to our west. With a surface trough extending southward to Lake Ontario, west-northwesterly winds have resulted today but, with weaker winds present aloft compared to yesterday, peak gusts today have only been to around 15-20 mph. Moving to visible satellite, another day with more cloudiness than NBM would suggest with stratocumulus present across the northeastward 3/4th of the forecast area. That said, optical thickness of today's clouds is a notable step downward compared to yesterday. Have adjusted forecast highs for this afternoon downward just a hair as a result with most locations ending up in the upper 40s. Tonight, with the aforementioned reduction in thickness of the clouds, expect skies to clear more readily as slow but steady descent continues in the wake of the upper trough. Surface ridge will build eastward, leading to light winds. Provided skies do clear, excellent radiational cooling conditions will result with locations very likely (80-100% per 23.13z NBM) to dip below 32 and potentially (35-95%) drop to 28 or below. Given the multiple days with tough conditions for plants, this should herald the end of the growing season across all or the vast majority of the forecast area. Friday and Friday night Southerly winds and less cloud cover on the west side of a 1028 mb surface high extending from southern Lower Michigan southeast into the Ohio/Tennessee river valley will bring warmer temperatures into the region. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s to mid-50s. These temperatures will be much closer to normal. Saturday and Saturday night The 23.12z models are more consistent today that a shortwave trough will move southeast through the region. Unlike yesterday, there is more more 925 and 850 mb moisture transport. This has resulted in the addition of rain chances (15 to 24 percent) to the forecast. Considering the forcing with this wave, these rain chances are likely too low and they will likely be needed to be raised. Sunday night through Wednesday Still plenty of uncertainty on how far southwest and how fast a Canadian high pressure system will move east. This impacts on when and if rain will even move into the region during this time period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 VFR expected through the 24.06Z TAF period. Passing high pressure causes light and variable winds through much of the period, eventually turning out of the south through Friday. Precipitation chances increase west of the Mississippi River towards the end of the TAF period. Low level drier air limits overall precipitation confidence and aviation impacts. Low chance for MVFR ceilings west of the Mississippi River with precipitation chances through Saturday. Below IFR chances Sunday morning in central Wisconsin. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ032-033- 041>044-053>055-061. MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for IAZ008>011-018- 019-029-030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...JAR