FXUS63 KARX 040606

AFDARX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

106 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Slightly above normal temperatures expected today cease by

  Tuesday with below normal temperatures returning. Frost 

  potential for some Monday through Friday nights.



- Precipitation/meager storm chances (20-30%) this

  afternoon/evening with low rain chances (30%) returning by 

  Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, generally dry conditions 

  areawide.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1256 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026



The widespread above normal temperatures come to an end today as a 

frontal boundary sags southeast through the forecast area causing a 

15-20 degree spread in forecasted daytime highs. An earlier 

progression to the frontal passage in HREF member runs has 

decreased extent and degree of local warmth today, currently 

expected in southern peripheral counties from northeast Iowa 

into southwest Wisconsin. Some temporal discontinuities within 

recent HRRR runs regarding exact placement suggests some 

shifting northwest- southeast remains possible mostly dependent 

on coinciding diurnal heating influence; i.e., later passage, 

warmer temperatures build farther northwest through the forecast

area. 



Otherwise, limited impacts from light, low precipitation chances 

with frontal passage. Similar to temperatures, exact timing of 

frontal passage remains the inherent discrepancy with a 3 - 5 hour 

window between HREF members and the NBM hourly PoPs at the current 

forecast hour. Therefore, have painted more widespread than will be 

realized 15% to cover the timing spread while the actual timing will 

be limited to 1 hour +- 30 minutes for much of the area when 

saturation manages to successfully overcome the ongoing lower level 

dry air outside of southwest Wisconsin into northeast Iowa where 

PoPs likely linger within the warm sector. While also 

dependent upon frontal boundary location, current forecast 

confidence for local storm chances, potentially strong to severe 

upon initiation before quickly exiting the local forecast area, 

limited to far southern peripheral counties (Clayton County, IA & 

Grant County, WI) primarily. 



Slightly cooler low level temperature trends within LREF members 

have resulted in slightly (1-2 degree) cooler temperatures through 

the week than previously forecasted with daytime highs in the mid 

50s for most Tuesday through Friday. More impactful overnight frost

and/or freeze potential affects slightly more of southeast 

Minnesota locally initially Monday night, becoming widespread 

Tuesday night through Thursday night.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1256 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026



VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.

Some light rain and potentially (20%) TS may affect areas Monday

afternoon, mainly south of a CCY-BCK line but any reductions are

expected to be very brief. Winds initially out of the southwest

will slowly turn clockwise to out of the northwest during the

12z-21z time frame with some gusts to 25-30 knots.



&&



.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...None.

MN...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JAR

AVIATION...Ferguson