FXUS63 KAPX 241017 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 617 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -Scattered lake effect showers will linger across the region today, especially for the typical lake effect areas. -Mild temperatures return Sunday and Monday with highs near 60 degrees for most locations. -Minor precipitation chances continue midweek next week as east coast low pressure influences the Great Lakes region through the end of the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 326 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Pattern Synopsis...Midlevel closed low pressure over northern Quebec with embedded troughing currently over the Great Lakes region will continue to pull a cool, Canadian air mass into the Northwoods today. Subsequent northwest flow and strong temperatures gradients over the Lakes will continue to deliver scattered lake effect rain showers to parts of the CWA today. Forecast Details... Today...Delta T values between water and atmospheric temperatures remain large enough to carry chances of showers through the entirety of the short term period. Cyclonic flow will continue breezy northwestern winds today with enough momentum to carry scattered lake driven showers across the northwoods. With 850 temps slightly below freezing, a few localized areas may observe some wet mixed precip during a short window this morning before daytime heating pushes afternoon highs into the mid/upper 40s. Highest QPF will remain in the typical northwest flow regions between little and Grand Traverse Bay, with amounts of a general tenth to third of an inch while the remainder of the CWA can expect only a trace to a few hundredths. Tonight...High pressure begins to slowly influence showers as dry air aloft begins to dissipate precipitation. Model soundings depict enough low level moisture to continue lingering precip overnight tonight before showers scour out Saturday morning. Any accumulating precip is expected for the same northwest flow parts of northern lower with an additional tenth of QPF. Some localized mixed precipitation is expected for parts of Antrim and Kalkaska county as overnight lows reach the low 30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 326 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Midlevel ridging continues to build high pressure centered over the mid-Mississippi valley this weekend. With 850mb temperatures slightly above freezing, adiabatic heating processes combined with mostly sunny conditions will push daytime highs into the low to mid 50s Sunday and Monday. Clear skies and overnight radiational cooling processes will keep overnight lows near/slightly below freezing Sunday and Monday nights. Split wave flow pattern begins to develop in the mid levels around the Wednesday timeframe and remains in place through the entirety of the long term. Current guidance depicts a shortwave ridge keeping conditions and overall quiet weather for the majority of the long term. Low probs of light showers will remain in the forecast as large scale surface low pressure tracking up the east coast potentially returns some instability to the Great Lakes region. Current trends do not support widespread or heavy rainfall, but northeast flow into the region with enough moisture advection will likely continue periods of rainfall later next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 617 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Starting with some MVFR and ending VFR through the forecast period. Continuation of lake induced SHRA anticipated today, most prevalent at TVC and CIU. Temporary reductions in CIG and VSBYs possible in any activity that passes over TAF sites. Anticipating light NW winds to trend a touch breezy through the day before tapering this evening. CIGs largely go VFR across the board into tonight as surface high pressure settles into the region. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SJC LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...HAD