FXUS63 KAPX 240501 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 101 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and wet weather will continue tonight and linger into Friday morning - A pattern change is in store for the weekend with warmer temperatuers, sunny skies, and calm winds - Next chances for rain will likely arrive next week, with the details still uncertain && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 257 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Current satellite shows closed cell convection over most of the Great Lakes region this afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates down the windward side of a large upper low over eastern CAN. Enhanced LL NE winds and cooler CAN air (850 mb temps a few degrees below 0C) have allowed the lake engine to continue, resulting in widespread showery activity over eastern upper and northern lower. A few reports of small hail and graupel have trickled in today under the more robust cells. This coverage and intensity will continue through the afternoon and evening hours as the shortwave moves through the northern part of the state. A lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out, with high confidence in no severe hazards with showers/storms today. The large scale upper troughing over much of eastern CAN will accelerate to the NE early Friday morning, with higher heights aloft building in behind it over MI. It will likely take most of Friday morning for the lake engine to stop producing showery activity, however showers will become more isolated and focus solely over the sweet spots in NW flow regimes (snowbelts). Surface high pressure will build in for Friday. Although it will be modified by the very warm lakes, temperatures will remain cool Friday even though skies will trend more clear by Friday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 257 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 A fairly quiet pattern will be seen this weekend as temperatures gradually warm into the 50s during the afternoon hours and winds remain light. A series of deep upper troughs and lows will be impacting the western CONUS this weekend and into next week. Decent inconsistencies still exists with what this looks like for the western US, and due to this high uncertainty still exists for how that will move downwind towards the central and eastern CONUS. More trends are being shown for for mild and dry conditions to start next week, however rain could return the middle to late part of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 101 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Largely MVFR. Continued lake induced -SHRA activity to favor most TAF sites through the majority of the forecast period, with the exception of MBL and APN. Anticipating most persistent SHRA at TVC and to a somewhat lesser extent, CIU as well. Any SHRA passage may lead to temporary lowering of VSBY and CIGs. SHRA coverage tapers considerably into Friday evening. Light NW winds become a touch breezy into the afternoon on Friday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for LMZ342. && $$ SHORT TERM...ELD LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...HAD