FXUS63 KAPX 210326

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1126 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Clipper system to bring another round of snow and mixed

  precipitation to parts of northern MI this weekend.



- An active pattern remains in place next week with periods of 

  wintry precipitation possible at times.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, downstream 

troughing situated over the eastern seaboard with expansive ridging 

upstream over the western third of the CONUS. This morning's clipper 

now well off to the east with attention turning to energy making 

headway into the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest. Upstream ridging 

flattens with time early this weekend with that upstream energy set 

to ride near the international border into the Great Lakes this 

weekend. Into next week, a relatively active pattern remains in 

place with several additional chances for precipitation through the 

end of the forecast period.



Forecast Details: 



Temperatures continue to warm above freezing area-wide today, of 

course taking longest to moderate across the eastern U.P. (ANJ still 

at 31 as of 1:30 PM) while those across southern reaches of the 

forecast area propel through the 40s. Lows tonight set to drop back 

below freezing area-wide, bottoming out in the 20s for most.



Focus turns to the weekend as our next clipper system crosses 

northern MI. Initial precip chances look to arrive as early as late 

Saturday morning/midday, especially across the eastern U.P. and tip 

of the mitt. More likely than not this initial warm advection wing 

of precip falls as primarily wet/dense snow with some localized 1-4" 

not out of the question across parts of the eastern U.P. through 

early Saturday evening. This system sags south into northern lower 

Saturday night into Sunday with increasing precip chances farther 

south with time, albeit with increasing uncertainty regarding precip 

type. Latest trends support a rain/snow, perhaps freezing rain, mix 

across the U.P. and Straits, with this perhaps sneaking into the tip 

of the mitt and far northeast lower. Primarily rain anticipated 

south of these areas with temperatures late Saturday night into 

Sunday at least a couple of degrees above freezing. Overall, not a 

widespread impact event, but there's enough there to be monitored 

over the next couple of forecast cycles for potential localized 

impacts due to snow/ice across the eastern U.P., Straits, and 

perhaps down into the tip of the mitt and parts of northeast lower. 



This wave largely exits through the day Sunday with below normal 

temperatures expected Sunday night - Monday. Lows Sunday night 

favored in the teens and low 20s across the area -- coldest in the 

U.P. where some localized single digits readings are possible. 

Monday's highs ranging from the upper 20s far north to the upper 30s 

near Saginaw Bay.



Additional chances for unsettled weather return as early as Tuesday 

next week and continue at times through the remainder of the 

forecast period as longer range trends favor several additional 

waves/clipper systems traversing the northern tier of the CONUS.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1126 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Still expecting some IFR/LIFR cigs and/or visbys tonight due to 

patchy fog with light/vrb winds. Latest data looks a little slower 

with onset of rain/snow...closer to 12-15z for CIU/PLN; some 

question if it reaches the ground at TVC/MBL or not, with a better 

chance for cigs to go MVFR/VFR after 18z behind strengthening warm 

front. Could stay all SN at CIU with RASN more likely for PLN/APN, 

with shot at all RA by late afternoon there...with most intense 

period closer to 18-0z. Surface low could track across the 

TVC/MBL area in afternoon with potential for light winds in 

midday/late afternoon...but otherwise expect period of stronger 

SE winds ahead of this (5-15kt) around 15-20z, turning to NE 

toward 21- 0z. Some LLWS possible, esp at MBL late in the 

day...but could be further north into TVC/APN if low tracks 

further north. 



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...MJG

AVIATION...FEF