FXUS63 KAPX 201809 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 209 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures continue - Dry early week, Rain chances return midweek && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Diurnal showers and storms should dissipate quickly early this evening with the loss of daytime heating and as forcing diminishes. I would expect most of the activity through late afternoon focused from Saginaw Bay northwest into northeast lower, within a deeper moisture axis and with enhancement from inland penetrating lake breeze boundaries. Stronger storms could produce small hail and brief, heavy rain. Skies clear with light winds tonight, allowing temperatures to fall into the 40s over many interior areas. Some patchy fog will also be possible. Northern Michigan gets squeezed between weather systems on Sunday with an upper low north of Lake Superior and low pressure sliding through the northern Ohio Valley. We will likely see an increase in clouds during the afternoon over southern parts of the area in association with the low tracking well to our south. Lake breezes are also likely during the afternoon under an overall light wind regime, with a few showers possible along these boundaries over eastern upper. Overall, a nice Fathers Day weatherwise across northern Michigan. Sunday night, the storm system sliding to our south may push some showers as far north as our southern border (south of M-55), dry elsewhere. Quiet weather heading into the new week Monday-Tuesday with a quasi- zonal flow across the northern tier of the CONUS. Unsettled weather and increasing rain chances by later Tuesday extending into the second half of the week, as shortwave energy helps to once again carve out the upper trough across the Great Lakes. Temperatures generally remain below normal through the period. For those wanting some warmer temperatures, there are signals of a push of warmer air into the eastern half of the country for the end of the month into early July as troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest and inter-mountain west, inducing ridging over the central/eastern parts of the CONUS. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 VFR conditions look to persist through the issuance period with showers and perhaps a few storms possible as things are currently starting to bubble up on radar. Any storm that does perhaps track over a terminal could be capable of producing brief MVFR conditions, but this looks unlikely at this time. One thing to note is that some guidance wants to bring in lower visibilities and ceilings due to fog forming at KMBL Saturday morning...put in a slight hint of some lowering visibilities this TAF cycle but current confidence is low this will occur. Light winds through the period, with some local lake breeze development this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JK AVIATION...NSC