FXUS63 KAPX 200648 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 248 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for light wintry precipitation continue at times over the next several days. - Temperatures continue to trend above freezing and milder as we head into the start of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 The short-lvied quieter weather came to an end late last night into early this morning as a quick-hitting system slides through the region, bringing a return to more active weather to start the day. Overall, still dealing with a pretty marginal setup, with decent warm air advection in place and a tricky thermal profile, especially across eastern Upper with temperatures expected to be just below the freezing mark, but warm through the morning... Thinking is still that mainly wet snow will be had up that way (with precipitation already starting as snow), with up to 3 inches possible across Chippewa County, tapering to an inch or less across the Tip of the Mitt where sleet looks like it could mix in at times. Freezing rain/ drizzle is still a concern around the Straits area this morning and far northern Lower/ far southern eastern Upper, with temperatures hovering right around the freezing mark (thinking any ice accumulations should be limited to a glaze or less). Across the rest of the northern Lower, soundings show that this looks primarily like a light rain event (with perhaps freezing rain/ drizzle trying to make an appearance down into the Tip of the Mitt towards Alpena) with minimal overall accumulations. As better forcing slides out of the region through the morning leaving perhaps a light drizzle behind, the bigger story becomes the temperature response as they climb above freezing, with eastern Upper and the Straits region slower to respond...With any icing expected to melt in the morning with temperatures warming above freezing eventually. Highs today look to reach the upper 30s across eastern Upper and low to mid 40s across Northern Lower, warmest across southern portions of northeast Lower where low 50s even look possible. This warming trend carries into the start of the weekend as upstream ridging continues to build in. Saturday looks like another fairly mild day, with highs well into the upper 30s to low 40s across eastern Upper and low 40s to even low 50s across northern Lower. A cold front sags south through the area Saturday night, bringing with it another chance for a few rain and snow showers/ mix of both. Moisture looks limited, but as the previous forecaster said, models don't seem to be handling this system all too well... something to watch in the coming forecast cycles. Behind the front, temperatures take a slight step back for Sunday into Monday, but still look to remain near to above freezing for most during the day (aside from Upper, which may hang closer to the low 30s). Northwest flow sticks around aloft, so can't rule out a few additional weak disturbances bringing periodic chances for light precipitation. By Tuesday, temperatures look to moderate a bit again as high pressure continues to build in from the west. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1147 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Swath of precipitation to move in around/after 6z. Primary focus will be CIU/PLN/APN; think -SN is more likely at CIU, with better shot of prevailing FZRAPL at PLN/APN...but could mix in at CIU as well. Cigs/visbys expected to remain IFR to LIFR here thru 12z, and could hang on thru 18z or so, before things finally try to scatter out a bit. Meanwhile, TVC and MBL may struggle to see anything, but likely RA if anything does reach the ground thru 12-15z with brief visbys/cigs to IFR or lower. A bit of DZ could hang on herebut think improvements to VFR are likely after 15-18z. SE winds 5-10kts tonight become light and vrb during the day, eventually turning around to NW around 5kts around or after 18z. LLWS around 1500ft from SW at 30-35kts thru 12z. Fog not impossible tonight, but not likely. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NSC AVIATION...FEF