FXUS63 KAPX 191021 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 621 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers today with a clearing trend from west to east through the afternoon. - Dry, seasonable weather Wednesday through Friday. - Showers possible Friday/Saturday, followed by noticeably cooler temperatures Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 A shortwave trough lifting through the Great Lakes Region will continue to draw deeper moisture into northern Michigan today. This will support scattered showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms through the morning/ early afternoon, with locally heavy rainfall possible in spots. Instability remains lower, so the threat for severe storms is minimal. Precipitation will gradually diminish from west to east as the day progresses, with drier air arriving during the afternoon as high pressure begins to build in from the west. Skies will start to clear late in the day and into tonight, setting up a cooler and quieter stretch of weather. Highs look to top out in the mid to upper 70s, while overnight lows fall back into the mid and upper 50s (low 60s across Grand Traverse Bay and south) under mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 High pressure settles in place across the Great Lakes mid-week, bringing a stretch of quiet weather and moderating temperatures. Wednesday looks comfortable with plenty of sunshine with highs largely in the 70s, with perhaps some 80s mixed in for areas along and south of M-55. A warming trend then develops into Thursday and Friday, with highs well into the 70s to mid 80s by Friday. Overnight lows will be cool Wednesday an Thursday nights, dipping into the 50s, to even possibly the 40s, under clear skies. Changes arrive later Friday into Saturday as an upper-level trough digs across the region. A cold front will likely slip through sometime during this period, though moisture looks limited. Scattered showers are possible with this passage, but it seems much of the area could remain dry... Stay tuned. Behind the front, notably cooler air spills into the region Sunday, with highs likely stuck in the 60s to low 70s and overnight lows falling into the upper 40s and low 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 621 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Widespread rain over northern lower Michigan will persist through much of this morning, largely ending by early afternoon with the potential for drizzle to linger as the system works east of the region. Degraded flight conditions have materialized as expected with many areas currently at IFR CIGs -- with localized LIFR CIGs across the eastern U.P. and the Straits. MVFR VSBYs with brief IFR VSBYs are anticipated through the morning as well. IFR/low MVFR is expected to continue for several hours before gradual improvement into this afternoon, eventually clearing and returning to VFR this evening into tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NSC LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...DJC