FXUS63 KAPX 190716

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

316 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Chances for light precipitation at times the next several days.



- Temperatures above freezing and trending milder into the start

  of the weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Only gradual changes in the overall pattern through the end of 

the week and into early next week, with long-wave features sow 

to budge and mid-level heights steadily building into the Great 

Lakes. We'll still be dealing with northwest flow aloft through 

this stretch, but even that begins to relax some as the pattern 

tries to become a bit more zonal by Sunday. Aformentioned 

northwest flow will allow a few weak, fast-moving shortwaves to 

slip through from time to time, keeping at least low-end chances

for light precipitation in the forecast... but overall, nothing

looks too impactful at the moment.



For today, any influence from a system diving southwest 

overnight into this morning looks pretty minimal, with trends 

continuing to favor a more southwest track. Still can't 

completely rule out a few light showers/ perhaps some light 

freezing drizzle early today, but most areas stay dry as high 

pressure settles overhead. Winds gradually turn northwest early 

today and decrease further this evening into the early overnight

hours. The bigger story today is the continued modification of 

the airmass as colder anomolies get pushed further out of the 

region. With a bit more afternoon sunshine mixed in today, 

temperatures respond nicely, climbing into the upper 30s to low 

40s. Definitely a welcome rebound, especially for those still 

dealing with ice storm cleanup efforts. 



As we head into tonight and early Friday, attention turns to 

the next quick hitting shortwave and associated surface low. 

With increasing mid-level heights the better forcing seems to be

pushed further northeast, supporting a slightly further north 

track with this system. This should focus the better 

precipitation chances across the northeast half of the forecast 

area (eastern Upper, Tip of the Mitt into northeast Lower). 

Right now, expecting a rain/snow mix across much of northern 

Lower, while areas north of the bridge lean towards mainly snow?

Any snow accumulations look minor with relatively limited 

moisture and the fast-moving nature of the system (an inch or 

less expected across eastern Upper into northeast Lower 

Michigan). However, I do want to note that their is a freezing 

drizzle/rain potential that could form with marginal 

temperatures sitting right at the freezing mark... Something to 

monitor in the coming forecast cycles, but with the temperatures

hovering around freezing expected to warm through Friday 

morning, thinking it should be hard to get ice accumulations to 

coat surfaces. Temperatures continue to moderate Friday as 

mentioned before, with highs reaching the low 40s across eastern

Upper and low to mid 40s across Northern Lower, warmest across 

southern portions of northeast Lower.



This warming trend carries into the start of the weekend as 

upstream ridging continues to build in. Saturday looks like 

another fairly mild day, with highs well into the upper 30s to 

lo 40s across eastern Upper and low 40s to even low 50s across 

northern Lower. A cold front sags south through the area 

Saturday night, bringing with it another chance for a few rain 

and snow showers. Once again, forcing and moisture look limited,

so not expecting anything significant at this time. Behind the 

front, temperatures take a slight step back for Sunday into 

Monday, but still look to remain near to above freezing for most

during the day (aside from Upper, which may hang closer to the 

low 30s). Northwest flow sticks around aloft, so can't rule out 

a few additional weak disturbances bringing periodic chances for

light precipitation. By Tuesday, temperatures look to moderate 

a bit again as high pressure continues to build in from the 

west.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 159 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Current MVFR CIGs and localized IFR CIGs are expected to improve 

with time this morning, especially late morning/early afternoon as a 

front drops from north to south across the area. Clearing cloud 

cover behind this boundary will bring VFR conditions to TAF sites 

this afternoon into tonight. Otherwise, pockets of freezing drizzle 

may persist over the next several hours tonight before chances wane 

this morning.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...NSC

AVIATION...DJC/FEF