FXUS63 KAPX 041722

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

122 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



-Elevated fire weather danger today.



-Showers track across the northwoods this evening. 



-Seasonably cool temperatures Tuesday through the rest of the week 

will consistently bring frost/freeze concerns across Northern 

Michigan.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 242 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026



Pattern Synopsis: 



A 500mb closed low pressure system remains over Hudson Bay with deep 

longwave troughing extending southward into the northeastern CONUS. 

Embedded shortwave ridging over the Great Lakes Region today will 

advect warm air from the southeast as H8 temperatures remain around 

8-10C. Mixing down to the surface, adiabatic heating processes and a 

lack of atmospheric moisture will result in highs in the low/mid 70s 

today and critically low RH values. 



Previously mentioned troughing with its axis extended through the 

Minnesota/Dakota region will develop surface low pressure and sweep 

a strong thermal gradient cold front across Northern Michigan. After 

showers depart the region overnight, the aforementioned trough axis 

will shift eastward and settle over the Great Lakes region. Cool cP 

air influence with 850mb temperatures below freezing will continue 

climatologically cool weather this Tuesday through the rest of the 

week. Daytime highs will remain in the 40s and 50s while overnight 

lows near freezing will continue Frost/Freeze concerns for 

vegetation.



Forecast Details: 



Elevated fire weather danger today... The aforementioned warm air 

advection associated with the shortwave ridge will begin to surge 

into the area today. Model soundings will begin to saturate from the 

top of the profile downward with very high dew point depressions at 

the surface, creating an “inverted V” profile. Low level jet 

development moves over Lake Michigan with 40kt winds by noon. 

Efficient daytime mixing will transport strong wind gusts to the 

surface along with further lowering dew points to the low 30s. 

Minimal RH values and winds will continue elevated Fire Weather 

wording along with wind gusts reaching 30 to 40mph this afternoon 

through 00Z Tuesday.



Showers and storms this evening...Strong surface low pressure to the 

Northwest with attached cold frontal boundary remains moisture 

starved even with strong southwest flow during the day. Midlevel 

lapse rates will provide enough instability to produce convective 

driven showers to sweep across the region. Showers will begin as 

early as this evening when saturation aloft finally overcomes dry 

surface conditions. Only QPF totals of 0.10” or less is expected 

across the CWA.



Seasonably cool weather with Frost/Freeze beyond Tuesday...The 

previously mentioned shortwave will progress southeast and position 

its axis over Northern Michigan as surface low pressure departs 

northeast. Cold cP surface air influence and sub-freezing H8 

temperatures will then occupy the CWA this Tuesday through the 

remainder of the week. Even with high pressure and overall 

precipitation-free conditions this Tuesday through Thursday, 

adiabatic heating to the surface will result in highs in the upper 

40s and 50s through Friday while overnight lows fall to the mid to 

low 30s. The biggest concern at this time remains the continuation 

of frost and freeze threatening sensitive vegetation during these 

early stages of the growing season. Lingering low-level moisture 

will keep some scattered showers in the forecast toward the end of 

the week as embedded weak energy waves track through the region, but 

little to no QPF is expected at this time.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026



Main issue thru rest of afternoon is winds, with gusts already 35-

45kts and think this will only continue; not impossible winds could 

be stronger, though, esp between 21-3z as wind shift from SW to NW/N 

comes through. Brief period of lighter winds for a couple hours 

before picking back up to 10-15kts after 6z, esp after daybreak, 

with gusts around 20-25kts after 12z. SHRA/TSRA possible this 

afternoon into this evening but should wind down after 3-6z. Cigs 

likely remain VFR; could touch MVFR for a brief period this evening 

but not likely to stay there. Cu/strato-cu redevelops during the 

morning.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for 

     LHZ346>349.

     Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-342-

     344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-

     322.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...SJC

AVIATION...FEF