FXUS63 KABR 242326 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 626 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog potential later tonight into Saturday morning. - Broad coverage of gusty southerly winds, with gusts reaching 30 to 40 miles per hour, is expected over central and northeastern South Dakota Saturday and Sunday. - Elevated Grassland Fire Danger this weekend, particularly Sunday, due to 30-40mph wind gust potential. - Rain returns Monday morning through Tuesday morning, with the highest chances (40-60 percent) Monday into Monday night. There is a 40-50 percent chance of half an inch or more of rainfall generally between the Missouri River valley and the Interstate 29 corridor. && .UPDATE... Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 No major changes to the forecast. Still watching an area of 2-3kft clouds moving up from the south into eastern South Dakota/western Minnesota, or redeveloping with loss of daytime heating over towards Brookings area. A winds shift to the southeast across the James valley, models are still predicting fog development in the upslope areas along and to the west of a line from about Seneca to Ipswich to Leola...but stopping well shy of the Mo. See below for the update to the aviation discussion. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 At 2 PM CDT, sunshine abounds and temperatures are warming into the 60s on a south breeze 10 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Tonight, will be watching for fog/stratus development, as the low level return flow pressure pattern (low level jet) is drawing low level moisture northward into the region. Temperatures will depend on how much/little stratus cloud coverage there is over the CWA this weekend. If the stratus burns off quickly enough/or doesn't materialize for some reason, a couple more days of above normal temperatures are expected Saturday and Sunday, as the low level southerly boundary layer wind persists. Normal temperatures are mid 50s for highs and 30-34F for lows, and forecast high temperatures Saturday and Sunday are in the 60s to around 70F degrees. Low temperatures are expected to remain above freezing tonight through Sunday night. Breezy to windy southerly winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph can be expected Saturday and Sunday, with Sunday expected to be more windy than Saturday. The Grassland Fire Danger Index is expected to be in the moderate to high category over the next couple of days, as well, given the state of vegetation green-ness/dryness and strength of the forecast wind. Throughout the 7-day forecast period, models depict eastern CONUS longwave troughiness and western CONUS longwave ridging attempting to maintain their respective positions. There's just one period of time between Sunday and Tuesday night when energy within the upper level jet tries to knock the western CONUS ridge down and move as far inland as the northern plains before being sheared apart/redirected northeast toward Lake Superior. Guidance right now, has rainfall developing over this CWA by 12Z Monday, with rain chances persisting Monday night into Tuesday morning before diminishing. Official precipitation forecast guidance points to between 0.25in-0.50in of rainfall happening over this region within the ~36 hour period between 12Z Monday and 18Z Tuesday. This early week system will also bring a cold frontal passage through the region, signaling a period of low level CAA that will drop temperatures back down to something closer to climo normal for the last week of October. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions for KPIR/KMBG. An area of VFR/MVFR CIGS is moving up towards KATY and may or may not impact the KABR terminal towards morning. These CIGS will persist near the KABR/KATY terminals well into the day Saturday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...07 DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...07