FXUS63 KABR 241931 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 231 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog potential later tonight into Saturday morning. - Broad coverage of gusty southerly winds, with gusts reaching 30 to 40 miles per hour, is expected over central and northeastern South Dakota Saturday and Sunday. - Elevated Grassland Fire Danger this weekend, particularly Sunday, due to 30-40mph wind gust potential. - Rain returns Monday morning through Tuesday morning, with the highest chances (40-60 percent) Monday into Monday night. There is a 40-50 percent chance of half an inch or more of rainfall generally between the Missouri River valley and the Interstate 29 corridor. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 At 2 PM CDT, sunshine abounds and temperatures are warming into the 60s on a south breeze 10 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Tonight, will be watching for fog/stratus development, as the low level return flow pressure pattern (low level jet) is drawing low level moisture northward into the region. Temperatures will depend on how much/little stratus cloud coverage there is over the CWA this weekend. If the stratus burns off quickly enough/or doesn't materialize for some reason, a couple more days of above normal temperatures are expected Saturday and Sunday, as the low level southerly boundary layer wind persists. Normal temperatures are mid 50s for highs and 30-34F for lows, and forecast high temperatures Saturday and Sunday are in the 60s to around 70F degrees. Low temperatures are expected to remain above freezing tonight through Sunday night. Breezy to windy southerly winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph can be expected Saturday and Sunday, with Sunday expected to be more windy than Saturday. The Grassland Fire Danger Index is expected to be in the moderate to high category over the next couple of days, as well, given the state of vegetation green-ness/dryness and strength of the forecast wind. Throughout the 7-day forecast period, models depict eastern CONUS longwave troughiness and western CONUS longwave ridging attempting to maintain their respective positions. There's just one period of time between Sunday and Tuesday night when energy within the upper level jet tries to knock the western CONUS ridge down and move as far inland as the northern plains before being sheared apart/redirected northeast toward Lake Superior. Guidance right now, has rainfall developing over this CWA by 12Z Monday, with rain chances persisting Monday night into Tuesday morning before diminishing. Official precipitation forecast guidance points to between 0.25in-0.50in of rainfall happening over this region within the ~36 hour period between 12Z Monday and 18Z Tuesday. This early week system will also bring a cold frontal passage through the region, signaling a period of low level CAA that will drop temperatures back down to something closer to climo normal for the last week of October. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast through 12Z Saturday. Beyond that, there is some question as to the amount of areal coverage of fog/stratus there could be over the region by early Saturday morning, likely lasting through much of the morning hours on Saturday. Low clouds (and possibly fog) are forecast to develop/move northward into the region and begin affecting KATY (possibly KABR, too) with MVFR/IFR stratus CIGs between 12Z and 18Z Saturday. Advection fog is also a concern between 06Z and 18Z Saturday throughout the region between KPIR and KABR. Confidence is not high enough to include any fog mention in the TAFs right now. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...10