FXUS63 KABR 240834

AFDABR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Aberdeen SD

334 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Broad coverage of gusty southerly winds over central and 

  northeastern South Dakota is expected Sunday, with gusts 

  reaching 30 to 40 miles per hour. 



- Rain returns Monday morning through Tuesday, with the highest 

  chances of 40-60% during the day Monday. Northeastern South 

  Dakota into west central Minnesota is expected to see the 

  highest rainfall amounts, with a 30-40% percent chance to see 

  half an inch.



&&



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...

Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Not much for impactful weather in the short term period. A 

tightening pressure gradient across the region today will bring 

increasing southerly breezes (east of the Missouri River) under 

mostly sunny skies. Generally anticipating the strongest gusts from 

the south to be 20-30mph from the James valley eastward into the 

Coteau, which also lines up with the placement of strongest low-

level winds (850mb) around 30 knots. Looking at above normal 

temperatures (60s) as well with 850mb temps around +6C to +11C 

across the region.  



With a bit warmer air mass aloft in place tonight compared to 

previous nights, and that fact that we'll keep light southerly winds 

in place for most areas, lows look to be a bit warmer and should 

stay above freezing. One thing to watch overnight will be potential 

for stratus racing northward across eastern SD. Several low-level 

cloud cover products, aviation guidance, as well as soundings hint 

at this. The increase in sky cover is reflected in the 

grids/forecast. 



Winds begin to increase more on Saturday as southerly gusts reach 25 

to 35 mph for many locations, highest across central SD. 850mb temps 

rather comparable to Friday, so once again looking at highs in the 

60s across the region. Although, will have to keep an eye on how 

long any potential stratus sticks around into the day on Saturday 

and if this has an effect on temperatures.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Saturday evening through Sunday there will be an upper-level ridge 

to the east of SD, which will support a high surface pressure over 

the Great Lakes. At the same time, a negatively tilted upper-level 

trough to the west will support a low surface pressure developing in 

southern Saskatchewan. This then leads to a tight pressure gradient 

over central and eastern SD, and prompt the development of a low 

level jet over the state. Winds will increase through the day Sunday 

as strengthening lapse rates help to bring the stronger winds from 

the jet to the surface. Winds are forecast to gust up around 35-

40mph Sunday afternoon over area east of the Missouri River. 

Currently these winds look to be weaker than the criteria for wind 

advisory, but the potential for an advisory will continue to be 

watched. While the winds are forecast to be relatively strong, the 

relative humidity values over the area are forecast to be around and 

above 45%, which will help to reduce the fire danger. 



Sunday evening into Monday morning, the models are forecasting a 

cold front to move through central and eastern SD. There are some 

variations in the models for when showers start to develop along the 

front, with some having showers develop Sunday night over central SD 

and other start Monday morning over eastern SD. Another frontal 

boundary is then forecast to move into the area again at some point 

Monday into Tuesday, leading to another round of showers moving 

through the state. There is a 40-60% chance for greater than a 

quarter of an inch of rain to occur during the 48hrs from Sunday 

evening to Tuesday evening, with the highest chances over 

northeastern SD and west central MN. There is a 20-40% chance for 

greater than a half inch of rain during the same time over central 

and northeastern SD. In addition to precipitation, the fronts will 

help move cold air into central and eastern SD, which will lead to 

around normal temperatures for this time of the year through the 

week.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG



VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.



&&



.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

MN...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...TMT

LONG TERM...12

AVIATION...TMT