FXUS63 KABR 240537 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1237 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs will be in the low to mid 60s Friday through Sunday, about 10 degrees above normal for late October. - Broad coverage of gusty southerly winds over central and northeastern South Dakota is expected Sunday, with gusts reaching 30 to 40 miles per hour. - Rain returns Monday morning through Tuesday, with the highest chances of 45-65% during the day Monday. Northeastern South Dakota into west central Minnesota is expected to see the highest rainfall amounts, with a 40 percent chance to see half an inch. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Aviation discussion updated below for the 06Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Split flow develops over the northern plains today, bringing height rises and marking the beginning of a warming trend. Temperatures are expected to peak in the mid-60s both Saturday and Sunday, about 10 degrees warmer than normal for late October across the board. Overnight lows follow in the same vein, reaching the mid-40s for the weekend, 10-15 degrees above normal. The next chances for impactful weather over the forecast area come this weekend with the arrival of an approximately 40 knot low-level jet. Afternoon mixing is expected to help bring 30 mile per hour gusts to the surface Saturday over central South Dakota, with coverage of 30 to 40 mile per hour gusts expanding to be across the entire forecast area Sunday. Still monitoring the potential for Wind Advisory level winds (sustained winds of 30 miles per hour, gusts of 45 miles per hour) with Sunday appearing as the most likely candidate. The latest NBM guidance shows pockets of 30-50% chance of reaching advisory criteria Saturday, before a broad 50-70% chance takes hold Sunday. However, the NBM appears to be much more favorable than other ensembles about the strength of the surface winds, with GFS and Euro ensembles putting the odds closer to 20% Sunday, with little chance on Saturday. Therefore confidence is low at this point, and the flow aloft barely reaching advisory levels in many models, the lower end, non-zero chances for Advisory winds is more in line with the thought process at this point. We continue to monitor the potential for rain showers to develop along a cold front early next week. A negatively tilted upper-level trough develops a low pressure center over southern Canada late Sunday into Monday, leading to the cold front bringing showers to the forecast area Monday into early Tuesday. The NBM has been fairly consistent on probabilities of rainfall over the past couple of forecast cycles. 24 hour (ending at 12Z Tuesday morning) probability of a quarter of an inch of rain has a broad 30-50% coverage across the forecast area, and a similar areal extent for 20-35% chances for half an inch. In both instances, northeastern South Dakota into western Minnesota is the area in which the highest probabilities are located, with some post-frontal shower development potentially contributing to the rainfall totals in that area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...TMT