FXUS63 KABR 191145 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 645 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Patchy to areas of fog are possible this morning over northeastern SD which could cause lower visibilities down to around a half mile or potentially lower at times. - High temperatures will be 15 to 30 degrees above normal through Saturday. - Expect increased fire weather concerns over central SD through Saturday, with winds in the afternoon gusting 20-30 mph. && .UPDATE... Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 With warming temperatures melting the snow across northeastern SD, the air has filled with moisture. As dew point depressions have decreased through the night, some areas across northeastern SD are starting to see a little bit of fog develop. The fog potential will continue to increase into the morning for the James River Valley and east, leading to patchy areas of fog with lower visibilities down to a half mile or lower at times. An eye will be kept on webcams around the area through the morning to see if a dense fog advisory will be needed. An upper-level ridge continues to move east over SD for the next few days, leading to warm air moving into central and northeastern SD. This warm air will warm temperatures 15-30 degrees warmer than normal for this time of the year, in the upper 50s to upper 70s. The warmer temperatures yesterday helped to melt a lot of snow across the area, though some areas in northeastern SD still have a bit left. This snow will help to keep temperatures a little bit cooler today in these areas, in the upper 50s, until the snow melts and then highs will be in the 60s in the coming days. This warmth is leading to a couple of maximum and warm low temperatures across the area that get close to or above records through Saturday. The warmth does lead to some fire weather concern into the weekend. The moisture from the melted snow cover will be drying out from the heat and lower relative humidity over the next couple of days, leaving behind dry conditions that could become fairly ripe for fires to start. Wind gusts during the afternoon are forecast to gust 20-30 mph over central SD. Conditions are not quite at red flag criteria, but there is still fire weather concerns with the Grassland Fire Danger index values getting up to high and very high over central SD into Saturday. During the weekend, a shortwave will suppress the ridge and help a cold front to move south through SD. This cold front will cause temperatures to drop Saturday night into Sunday and cause around normal temperatures through the end over the weekend into next week. The frontal passage will also provide the forcing needed for the next chance of precipitation Saturday night into Sunday morning. Not all of the models show precipitation occurring as the front moves into central and northeastern SD due to the lack of moisture in the atmosphere over the area. Despite this, more models are showing precipitation move into northern SD, but there are still lower chances, 20-35% chance, at the moment. Other than this, precipitation is forecast to stay out of central and northeastern SD for a few days. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG IFR/LIFR cigs and vsbys will be possible at KABR/KATY terminals through about mid morning as a result of the patchy dense fog occurring across northeast SD. The fog should burn off by mid/late morning with improvements expected thereafter. VFR conditions will return at these 2 TAF sites by midday and prevail for the rest of the current forecast cycle. KPIR/KMBG terminals will remain VFR for this forecast period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Vipond DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...Vipond