FXUS63 KABR 190638

AFDABR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Aberdeen SD

138 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



-Patchy to areas of fog are possible this morning over northeastern 

SD which could cause lower visibilities down to around a half mile 

or potentially lower at times.



- High temperatures will be 15 to 30 degrees above normal through 

Saturday.



- Expect increased fire weather concerns over central SD through 

Saturday, with winds in the afternoon gusting 20-30 mph.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 134 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



With warming temperatures melting the snow across northeastern SD, 

the air has filled with moisture. As dew point depressions have 

decreased through the night, some areas across northeastern SD are

starting to see a little bit of fog develop. The fog potential 

will continue to increase into the morning for the James River 

Valley and east, leading to patchy areas of fog with lower 

visibilities down to a half mile or lower at times. An eye will be

kept on webcams around the area through the morning to see if a 

dense fog advisory will be needed. 



An upper-level ridge continues to move east over SD for the next few 

days, leading to warm air moving into central and northeastern SD. 

This warm air will warm temperatures 15-30 degrees warmer than 

normal for this time of the year, in the upper 50s to upper 70s. The 

warmer temperatures yesterday helped to melt a lot of snow across 

the area, though some areas in northeastern SD still have a bit 

left. This snow will help to keep temperatures a little bit cooler 

today in these areas, in the upper 50s, until the snow melts and 

then highs will be in the 60s in the coming days. This warmth is 

leading to a couple of maximum and warm low temperatures across the 

area that get close to or above records through Saturday. 



The warmth does lead to some fire weather concern into the weekend. 

The moisture from the melted snow cover will be drying out from the 

heat and lower relative humidity over the next couple of days, 

leaving behind dry conditions that could become fairly ripe for 

fires to start. Wind gusts during the afternoon are forecast to gust 

20-30 mph over central SD. Conditions are not quite at red flag 

criteria, but there is still fire weather concerns with the 

Grassland Fire Danger index values getting up to high and very high 

over central SD into Saturday. 



During the weekend, a shortwave will suppress the ridge and help a 

cold front to move south through SD. This cold front will cause 

temperatures to drop Saturday night into Sunday and cause around 

normal temperatures through the end over the weekend into next week. 

The frontal passage will also provide the forcing needed for the 

next chance of precipitation Saturday night into Sunday morning. Not 

all of the models show precipitation occurring as the front moves 

into central and northeastern SD due to the lack of moisture in the 

atmosphere over the area. Despite this, more models are showing 

precipitation move into northern SD, but there are still lower 

chances, 20-35% chance, at the moment. Other than this, 

precipitation is forecast to stay out of central and northeastern SD 

for a few days.





&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG



Anticipating foggy conditions will become an issue at KABR/KATY

terminals this morning. IFR/LIFR vsbys and MVFR/IFR cigs will be 

possible later this morning, during the pre-dawn hours and 

persisting until about mid morning. VFR conditions are then

expected to return by late morning. KPIR/KMBG should remain free

of any foggy conditions, so expect VFR conditions will prevail at

these terminals during this forecast cycle.





&&



.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

MN...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...12

AVIATION...Vipond