FXUS63 KABR 070152 AAB

AFDABR



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Aberdeen SD

852 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Temperatures Monday will be 5 to 20 degrees below normal. 



- 20-35% chance of light showers Tuesday night through Wednesday

  night.



- Temperatures will be on a steady increase through the week,

  peaking next Saturday and Sunday in the 70s, which is 10 to 20 

  degrees above normal.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 845 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025



Cold front is making steady progress southward and is just 

entering northern Jones/Lyman counties at this time. Steady north-

northeast winds behind the front, along with much cooler air and 

higher humidity. Still appear on track for lows in the teens and 

20s overnight. No noteworthy changes to the forecast for the 

overnight period.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025



At 1 PM CDT, temperatures were running roughly 10 to 20 degrees 

warmer than this time yesterday, with readings mainly up into the 

40s and 50s, and low 60s for some localities. The backdoor cold 

front is analyzed in North Dakota, appx 50 miles north of 

Aberdeen, or appx 20 miles north of the Dakotas border. So, right

now, winds are still generally from the west at about 5 to 15 mph

with some higher gusts occasionally. Earlier high clouds have 

basically dissipated, leaving a sunny/mostly sunny sky overhead.



The cold frontal boundary should begin backing its way south-

southwestward through the CWA within the next few hours. It looks to 

clear the far southwestern forecast area later this evening around 

~4-5Z. The extent of the low level CAA should push the mercury well 

below freezing for this time of year. Much of north central and 

northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota could see low 

temperatures tonight fall below 20F degrees (50-80+ percent chance), 

as well as Monday night (40-70 percent chance). Temperatures this 

cold at this time in April are roughly 5-10F degrees below normal. 

Daytime high temperatures Monday do not appear to fair much better 

either, with some locations over the far eastern forecast zones 

potentially not getting out of the 30s.



Will also have to keep an eye on the potential for post-frontal CAA 

stratus development (and orographic-forced fog?) overnight tonight 

as an east component of wind starts to show up by 06Z, which is an 

upslope wind direction for several areas of the CWA.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025



Ensembles/deterministics picture looks like this in the out 

periods:



a highly amplified upper ridge moving overhead on Tuesday 

flattens/becomes nearly zonal flow as a strong upper jet pushes in 

off the Pacific ocean. Lower bound precip chances (20-35%) Tuesday 

night through early Thursday morning over this CWA in this brief 

nearly zonal flow set-up while upper level ridging rebuilds to the 

west at the same time. During the middle to latter part of the week, 

this rebuilding upper ridge to the west is progged to shift over to 

the central plains (including this CWA) Saturday before flattening 

out/becoming nearly zonal flow again Sunday.



Ensemble clusters analysis does not showcase any days in the 

extended with precipitation/qpf chances. That is, there are no 

systems large enough/significant enough to be seen by the ensemble 

mean. That said, the deterministic GSM's still hang on to a couple 

of mid-level shortwaves brought through the region Tuesday 

night/Wednesday and Wednesday night/Thursday during this period of 

semi-zonal flow, and generate a few pockets of lower-bound qpf (a 

few hundredths here and there). There may be some additional chances 

for precipitation at the very end of the period (15-20% chance 

Saturday/Sunday).The ensembles system's 25-75th percentile range of temperatures 

suggests Tuesday's, near normal, highs in the 50s will be the 

coolest temperatures of the extended. A gradual warming trend shows 

up in the models after Tuesday, lasting for rest of the week into 

the weekend (high's appx 15 to 20 degrees above normal for mid-

April).



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025



Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG



VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. There may be a

few patches of MVFR CIGs floating around northeast SD Monday

morning, but confidence in CIGs going BKN or OVC is rather low at

this time. Will continue to monitor.





&&



.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

MN...None.

&&



$$



UPDATE...TMT

SHORT TERM...10

LONG TERM...10

AVIATION...TMT