FXUS63 KABR 040527 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1227 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds out of the northwest will gust 30 to 40 mph Monday afternoon, with locally higher gusts possible. - High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be around 10 to 20 degrees below normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 The aviation discussion has been updated for the 06Z TAFS. UPDATE Issued at 450 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026 We are monitoring the showers and thunderstorms over southwestern SD late this afternoon, that if they stick together, will be near Jones County shortly after 01Z. Thin high clouds are nearing from ND and there are lingering daytime cumulus clouds over portions of Corson and Dewey Counties. No significant changes are anticipated in the ongoing forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026 A strong area of low pressure will cross the Canadian prairies and into the Great Lakes region later tonight through Monday morning. Increasing westerly-southwesterly winds develop ahead the cold front with half km winds reaching 35 to 50 knots between 3-12Z Monday. A downslope wind event may be possible along the lee side of the Prairie Coteau with gusts exceeding 45 mph. The cold front pushes through the CWA, starting around 12Z, with 925 mb temps falling to the single digits above by 18Z. There is a 20 percent chance for light showers along the frontal boundary. However, the amount of available LLM is limited with precipitation potential placement around a fourth of an inch at most. Some CAMS are showing additional instability showers post frontal Monday afternoon. An inverted V sounding coupled with high bases, even with some instability, am not expecting a great deal of QPF. Any additional showers should dissipate during the evening hours. Gusty northerly winds may be the main issue post frontal as the NBM shows 30 to 50 percent chance gusts exceed 40 mph, mainly along and west of the James River valley. As of now, winds may fall short of advisory levels. The rest of the forecast period appears to be mostly dry, with cold temperatures midweek. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday warm into the upper 40s, to the 50s, or 10 to 20 degrees below average for this time of year. NBM suggests near record, within 5 degrees, low temperatures Wednesday morning with lows in the mid 20s. Temperatures will warm through the rest of the period with highs returning to the 70s for Mother's Day weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will continue at all terminals during this TAF valid period. Southwest winds will become west to northwest through the early morning hours as a cold front pushes through the region. Increasing winds speeds are expected as winds shift directions with peaks gusts between 25-35 knots by late morning/midday and persist into early evening tonight. Low level wind shear will be possible at KABR/KATY through the pre-dawn hours this morning as strong winds just off the deck are expected. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...06 DISCUSSION...SD AVIATION...Vipond