FXUS63 KABR 022132

AFDABR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Aberdeen SD

332 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Areas of light snow/snow showers through tonight, with 

  accumulations less than an inch. Mixed precip (rain/freezing 

  rain) possible across central SD, but only a light glaze 

  possible. Overall, minor/limited impacts with this system.



- Weak system will bring additional chances (20-30%) for light 

  snowfall under an inch for Tuesday night.



- Expect above normal temperatures (by 5 to 20 degrees) Wednesday 

  through at least Monday of next week. The warmest air will be 

  overhead Thursday, with highs in the 40s to low 50s.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 331 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



Mid-level shortwave energy is dropping southeast across the Dakotas 

while a weak surface wave rides along the stationary front draped 

from north to south across the western Dakotas. Continue to see 

areas of light snow and/or snow showers moving southeast across the 

Dakotas, with more upstream across ND set to make its way through the 

area into the evening hours. Threat for mixed precipitation exists 

across central SD in the form of rain/freezing rain, although any 

ice accumulations are expected to be rather light with limited 

impacts. Same with snowfall, generally light accumulations under 1 

inch expected and not anticipating anything other than minor impacts 

from this wave as it moves through.



Still dealing with plenty of stratus clouds across the region as 

well, with signs pointing to this sticking around through much of 

the night. In fact, reinforcements in cloud cover may be arriving 

tomorrow so looking at a mostly cloudy short term period. Increased 

sky cover a bit in the grids/forecast through Tuesday evening.



Next chance for precip across the region looks to be Tuesday night, 

but again it's just a weak wave of low pressure with only 

minor/light amounts expected. The rest of the forecast from 

Wednesday through next Monday is a dry one, with a lack of any 

significant systems affecting the Northern Plains for the time 

being.



Focus is still on the warming temperatures set to overspread the 

area mid/late week into the upcoming weekend. Still appears the peak 

in temperatures will be on Thursday, with Grand Ensemble showing 

+10C to +15C across central SD by 00Z Friday. Inherited NBM high 

temps show widespread 40s and 50s across the region, even flirting 

with 60 degrees across the far west/southwestern CWA.





&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1116 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG



Fog is hanging on so far this morning over central and north central 

South Dakota, bringing low ceilings and reduced visibilities, down 

to IFR and at times, LIFR levels. This fog may hang on for the next 

couple of hours, dissipating later this afternoon. Where fog is 

present, visibility may continue to intermittently drop below 1 

mile. 



The other aviation concern comes in the form of precipitation moving 

into the area this afternoon through tonight. Precip will fall 

mainly as snow, although there may be some patches of rain or 

freezing rain later this afternoon and evening, mainly along and 

west of the Missouri River. Visibility reductions and low clouds 

(both down to IFR levels) are expected with the snow. Snow will 

taper off tonight, will some flurries lingering into the early 

morning hours. Only minor visibility reductions are expected by 

that point, but IFR ceilings are expected to persist through the 

duration of the TAF period. 





&&



.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

MN...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...TMT

AVIATION...BC