FXUS62 KTBW 250439 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1239 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous marine conditions through the weekend - Cooler drier air arrives next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1204 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Combination of strong surface high pressure over the mid Atlantic region and low pressure over the central Caribbean is creating a tight pressure gradient across the Florida peninsula. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear over west central and southwest Florida today and Sunday, but breezy east winds will prevail each day subsiding away from the coast at night. A chance of showers will develop, mainly over the interior and southwest Florida, Sunday afternoon as scattered showers move onshore the east coast of Florida in the strong easterly flow regime, with shower activity gradually dissipating as it pushes inland. Temperatures will remain several degrees above climatic normals with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s...and lows in the 60s to the lower 70s. Sunday night and Monday, a cold front will approach and push across the forecast area with a chance of showers. Cooler drier air will advect across the region in the wake of the front Monday night and Tuesday. Wednesday and Wednesday night, a deep U/L trough will dig along the eastern seaboard with an associated cold front pushing down the Florida peninsula. The front will have little in the way of moisture to work with, and only a slight chance of a brief shower is expected. The main impact will be gusty northwest winds developing in the wake of the front along with a reinforcing shot of much cooler drier air advecting over the forecast area. High temperatures may only be in the 70s on Thursday with breezy conditions and dew points in the 50s. Thursday night, temperatures may drop into the upper 40s to around 50 across the nature coast, with lows in the 50s away from the coast elsewhere. Highs on Friday will only climb to around 70 north...and the lower to mid 70s central and south. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Generally SKC at all terminals the remainder of the night...with FEW to SCT 035-045 developing by this afternoon. Breezy conditions will continue with wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots likely at all terminals today. && .MARINE... Issued at 1204 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Tight pressure gradient across the waters today and Sunday will create hazardous boating conditions...and a SCA is in effect for all coastal waters of west central and southwest Florida. On Monday, the gradient will relax allowing winds to drop below SCA levels as a weak cold front pushes across the waters with a slight chance of a shower. During the middle part of the week, a stronger cold front will push across the waters with SCA conditions possible in the wake of the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1204 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected over the weekend and into early next week as low level moisture has recovered, which will keep afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 71 89 72 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 88 73 90 72 / 0 0 20 10 GIF 86 70 87 71 / 0 0 20 10 SRQ 88 71 89 71 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 86 64 87 67 / 0 0 10 10 SPG 84 72 85 72 / 0 0 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby