FXUS62 KTBW 242352

AFDTBW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

752 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



...New UPDATE, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...



 - Hazardous marine conditions through the weekend



 - Cooler air arrives next Thursday



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 752 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Early evening IR satellite imagery is showing mostly clear skies

across the area this evening. The main weather concern today has

been the gusty winds as the state is positioned between surface 

ridging to the north and Tropical Storm Melissa well to the south.

ASOS and AWOS observations from today have reported peak wind 

gusts across the area of between 20 and 36 MPH, but these winds 

are now starting to subside this evening with the loss of solar 

heating. 



The forecast looks on track with winds forecast to pick back up

after sunrise and remain breezy through the next several days. No

changes are planned for the evening update.



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 752 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



VFR conditions are expected to hold through the next 24 hours

under breezy northeast winds. The possible exception will be the

outside chance for some MVFR ceilings Saturday afternoon, mainly

over southwest Florida around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



A stalled out front located in South Florida along with a 

strong high pressure in the Mid Atlantic States will cause a tight 

pressure gradient and gusty winds for today through the weekend. 

Winds will be out of the northeast through that period with winds 

around 20 knots and gusts up to 25. By Monday a weak cold front will 

push through the area. This will bring some isolated showers but 

will also help to loosen the pressure gradient slightly. This will 

allow winds to come down to around 10 to 15 knots out of the 

northeast for Monday and Tuesday. 



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



The biggest concern this weekend will be breezy conditions 

with gusts up to 25 mph each afternoon. RHs will remain around 50 

percent at the same time so no red flag advisory will be needed. 

Winds will calm down and RH will rise for Monday and Tuesday. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA  68  88  71  89 /   0   0   0  10 

FMY  70  88  72  90 /   0   0   0  10 

GIF  66  86  70  87 /   0   0   0  20 

SRQ  68  88  70  89 /   0   0   0  10 

BKV  60  86  64  87 /   0   0   0  10 

SPG  70  85  72  86 /   0   0   0  10 



&&



.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor 

     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to 

     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to 

     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon 

     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-

     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-

     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-

     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 

     60 NM.





&&



$$



UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming 

MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley