FXUS62 KTBW 240438 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1238 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous marine conditions today and through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 High pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida today and will hold over the region through Sunday. The gradient will tighten creating breezy conditions, especially along the coast and over the coastal waters. Dry conditions will persist with partly cloudy days and mostly clear skies at night. Increasing northeast to east winds off the relatively warm Atlantic waters will aid in L/L moisture recovery/increasing dew points today and through the weekend. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s each day and in the mid to upper 50s across the nature coast, and in the 60s central and south. A weak cold front will approach the forecast area on Monday with a chance of showers developing, with the best chance for rain across the north and interior. Weak high pressure will build back over the region on Tuesday. Wednesday and Wednesday night, a deep U/L trough will develop along the eastern seaboard with an associated cold front pushing down the Florida peninsula. The front will have little in the way of moisture to work with, and little in the way of shower activity is expected. The main impact will be gusty north to northwest winds developing in the wake of the front with much cooler drier air advecting over the forecast area. High temperatures may only be in the 70s on Thursday with breezy conditions and dew points in the 50s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies...with generally FEW to SCT 035-045 this afternoon. Breezy conditions will develop with wind gusts of around 20 knots likely at all terminals today. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Tightening gradient will cause winds to increase over the waters with SCA conditions expected today through Sunday which will create hazardous boating conditions. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the waters of west central and southwest Florida today through Sunday. Winds and seas will gradually subside Sunday night and Monday. A cold front will push across the waters the middle of next week with increasing northwest winds behind the front which may cause SCA conditions to redevelop. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1206 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Although low level moisture will begin to recover today, minimum relative humidity values will drop into the 35 to 40 percent range this afternoon across much of Levy county...however, winds are expected to remain below critical levels in this region. Elsewhere, minimum afternoon relative humidity values will be in the 40s with increasing northeast winds. Low level moisture will continue to rebound over the weekend with no fire weather hazards expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 67 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 88 70 88 73 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 86 65 85 68 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 86 67 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 86 59 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 83 70 84 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby