FXUS62 KTBW 201749 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 149 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... -Critically low relative humidity values over the Nature Coast and interior through the weekend. -Warming trend continues into the weekend. -Next chance of precipitation is not expected until the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 146 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Northerly flow aloft is in place on the backside of a departing upper level trough, which will continue to shift further into the Atlantic through the remainder of the day into tonight. Mid level heights will increase in response to the departing upper trough and this will favor a gradual warming trend throughout the weekend as surface high pressure builds directly across the Florida peninsula. Given the stable weather pattern and dry airmass in place, no precipitation is expected over the upcoming weekend as abundant sunshine will prevail with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday upper 70s to mid 80s on Sunday. Comfortable humidity levels will also accompany these values so overall it will be a fantastic weekend ahead for outdoor activities. However, those low humidity values will also keep the fire danger elevated as RH values possibly fall into the 20s particularly in interior areas, though winds will remain light since the center of the surface high will move directly across the FL peninsula. Quiet weather will continue into early next week with surface high pressure remaining in control so dry and warm conditions will prevail on Monday. However, a cold front will then approach the area on Tuesday as a surface low quickly moves offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast. Moisture advection increasing ahead of this frontal boundary will bring some rain chances back into the area with global models showing the boundary stalling around central FL. Thus, Slight/Chance PoPs is in the forecast to account for slightly more unsettled conditions by the middle of next week, but rainfall amounts don't appear to be enough for any meaningful drought relief at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the day as high pressure settles in. Some patchy fog may develop overnight mostly in interior areas, but forecast confidence in overall coverage is low at this time. Breezy NE winds will gradually subside through this evening with winds falling to 5 kts or less overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 146 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Exercise cautionary levels may linger through tonight in central and southern marine zones but winds will decrease below 15 kts by tonight. Very favorable marine conditions are then expected this weekend as surface high pressure builds across the area with winds less than 10 kts and seas 1 ft or less. The favorable boating conditions will continue into the new week with rain chances returning by the middle of next week as a cold front approaches the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 146 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Critically low RH values will continue to be a concern through the end of the week and into the weekend as a dry airmass remains in control, particularly across the Nature Coast and interior areas. However, wind speeds will remain low enough to prevent the development of red flag conditions. Humidity values will start to recover by early next week as deeper moisture then moves into the area but fire danger will remain elevated until then. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 56 79 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 56 82 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 53 82 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 54 78 57 80 / 0 0 0 0BKV 46 80 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 62 79 65 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard