FXUS62 KTBW 201328

AFDTBW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

928 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026



...New UPDATE, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 833 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026



- Increased shower and thunderstorm coverage this weekend before

  decreasing early next week.



- Daily heat index values of 105+ degrees continue areawide.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 833 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026



There is already some shower activity over the water and near the

coast and are expected to gradually push inland. This morning's 

sounding showed plenty of CAPE and moisture as well as very light 

winds. This combined with the current flow regime will allow this 

isolated to scattered activity to become widespread over the 

interior later this afternoon and into the evening. The main 

weather concern for coastal areas will be the heat with very warm 

temperatures and little to no relief from showers and triple 

digit heat indices. On the other hand, areas over the interior 

could have the potential for some strong winds and if conditions 

line up, there could be a chance for small hail given the 

temperatures aloft are around -9 degrees C. 



No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 833 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026



VFR conditions prevail through this morning west to southwesterly

winds in place. Isolated showers and a few storms are possible 

over the next few hours near coastal TAF sites. Then, convection

should move inland and east going into the afternoon. MVFR to IFR

cigs and vis will be possible if storms develop.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA  92  80  93  80 /  30  10  10   0 

FMY  93  78  94  78 /  40  10  10   0 

GIF  95  75  95  76 /  60  20  30   0 

SRQ  92  79  92  79 /  20  10  10   0 

BKV  93  75  94  74 /  50  20  20   0 

SPG  92  80  92  80 /  20  10  10   0 



&&



Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4



For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: 

     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology



&&



.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

Gulf waters...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme/Hurt

DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Pearce