FXUS62 KTBW 200700 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 300 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 A northwesterly flow will setup across the area today with some relatively drier air moving into most of the forecast area, with the exception being across southwest Florida. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the highest rain chances over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula. For Thursday through Sunday, upper level troughing will move into the eastern U.S. keeping the ridge axis across the Florida Straits as a weakening cool front settles into north Florida and gradually dissipates. This will establish a west to southwest flow across the region with a plume of deeper moisture, precipitable water 2 inches or more, stretching across the Deep South and northern Gulf leading to increased shower and thunderstorm activity across most of the region. This pattern will favor the timing of the highest rain chances to overnight and morning over the coastal waters and near the coast then moving inland and into the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula during the afternoon and evening hours each day. However, with such deep moisture expected, especially from around Tampa Bay north, a shower or thunderstorm could occur at almost anytime. Early next week, a second stronger cool front will move into the Deep South and possibly as far south as the central Florida peninsula by midweek before stalling and washing out. The west to southwest flow will continue for Monday, then transistion to east northeast by Wednesday as high pressure moves across the eastern U.S. bridging the boundary. Not matter what though, the deep moisture will remain across the region with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF forecast period. There is a chance, especially at the southwest Florida terminals, for a shower or thunderstorm which could cause some brief MVFR/local IFR conditions this afternoon. Light winds early this morning will become northwesterly at around 10 knots this afternoon then diminish and become light again later this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Winds will become northwesterly today then shift to west to southwest for the remainder of the week into the weekend. Slightly drier air will limit rain chances today, but during Thursday through Sunday moisture will return leading to increased shower and thunderstorm activity along with potential impacts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Some drier air along with northwesterly flow will limit the overall shower and thunderstorm activity today. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical thresholds and winds should remain less than 15 mph. For the remainder of the week through the weekend a west to southwest flow sets up with moisture returning along with higher shower and thunderstorm chances. There are no significant fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 82 93 81 / 20 20 50 20 FMY 93 79 92 79 / 40 20 40 20 GIF 95 78 95 77 / 40 10 60 10 SRQ 92 79 92 79 / 30 20 50 30 BKV 93 75 93 75 / 20 20 50 20 SPG 90 81 89 81 / 20 20 50 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Close DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn