FXUS62 KTBW 191834

AFDTBW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

234 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Gusty northeast winds to Exercise Caution over the eastern Gulf 

  waters through Friday.

 

- Critically low relative humidity values over the Nature Coast and 

  interior through the weekend.



- Warming trend continues through the week and into the weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

An upper-level trough extends from the eastern seaboard to FLorida 

this afternoon while surface high pressure continues over the 

southeast. This has kept a dry northeast low-level flow across the 

local area, with temperatures topping out closer to normal this 

afternoon. The trough will shift eastward over the next few days 

while surface high pressure settles over the region for the weekend 

and into early next week. This will allow the gradual warming trend 

to continue, with highs rising back above normal as we head into 

next week. A frontal boundary will move southward over the region on 

Tuesday, bringing a slight chance for showers through the middle 

part of the week. Otherwise, rain-free conditions will prevail. 



&&



.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. 



&&



.MARINE...

High pressure continues north of the region through the end of the 

week, keeping northeast winds near exercise caution levels through 

Friday. For the weekend into next week, high pressure will set up 

overhead, allowing winds to diminish with no further headlines 

expected. 



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

A relatively dry air mass will remain over the region for the next 

several days, with relative humidity values dropping to critical 

levels for tomorrow afternoon and then over parts of the interior 

for the weekend. No Red Flag conditions are expected, however, as 

other criteria are not expected to be met. No significant fog is 

expected.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA  75  53  78  55 /   0   0   0   0 

FMY  79  55  81  55 /   0   0   0   0 

GIF  74  52  78  52 /   0   0   0   0 

SRQ  77  54  79  54 /   0   0   0   0 

BKV  75  44  78  45 /   0   0   0   0 

SPG  76  60  79  62 /   0   0   0   0 



&&



.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

Gulf waters...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle

DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce

UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce