FXUS62 KTBW 190656 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 256 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty northeast winds to Exercise Caution over the eastern Gulf waters through Friday. - Critically low relative humidity values over the Nature Coast and interior through the weekend. - Warming trend continues through the week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Upper level troughing extends southward along the eastern seaboard, across Florida and into the central Gulf. This pattern will linger over the region for the next couple of days, then finally shifting eastward over the western Atlantic by Saturday morning. On the surface, a lingering stationary frontal boundary remains stretched across the Bahamas and Cuba. Farther northward over the mid-Atlantic states, a 1026 MB high pressure center ridges southwest through the southeast U.S., across northern Florida and into the northeastern Gulf. Interaction between this high pressure and the stationary boundary to the southeast is producing some gusty northeast winds over the region. As high pressure dominates, rain-free conditions and a warming trend will persist through the end of the week. This pattern will hold until Saturday morning when another 1020 MB high pressure center sets up over the central Gulf. This high pressure will dominate the weather through the weekend and into the first of next week with continued rain-free conditions and warming temperatures. On Monday, the ridge shifts slightly southward as a frontal boundary moves into the region from the north. This front will bring a slight chance of showers for Tuesday through Thursday next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 VFR and rain-free conditions along with northeast winds around 8-12 knots with some higher gusts will persist through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Interaction between a stationary frontal boundary southeast of Florida and high pressure to the north will keep a tight pressure gradient over the region producing gusty northeast winds to Exercise Caution level through the end of the week. Improving conditions expected over the weekend and into the first of next week as high pressure sets up over the central Gulf waters. Rain-free conditions expected through the forecast period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 A relatively dry air mass will remain over the region for the next several days, with relative humidity values dropping to critical levels for the Nature Coast Thursday and Friday afternoons and over parts of the interior over the weekend. However, no Red Flag issues are expected as sustained 20 foot winds remain less than 15 mph and the Significant Fire Potential is low. No significant fog is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 54 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 79 56 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 74 52 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 77 54 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 75 45 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 76 58 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Close